Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: SUNDAY, January 24, 1993 TAG: 9301260368
SECTION: NEW RIVER VALLEY ECONOMY PAGE: 16 EDITION: NEW RIVER VALLEY
SOURCE: MELISSA DeVAUGHN STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: LENGTH: Long
WHAT'S IN STORE?
WHEN IT comes to the ups and downs of the economy, even economists don't always agree. So we asked some ordinary folks what they think 1993 has in store for the New River Valley.\ For Virginia Tech research associate Rob Atkinson, things should be looking up in 1993. He thinks there will be modest growth in 1993, and that layoffs will either slow or stop.
"I am optimistic about our chances to break government gridlock in Washington, but I'm concerned about excessive spending," he said. "I guess I share Governor Clinton's tendency to waffle; while I'm optimistic in the short term, I fear that greater government spending might lead to higher deficits, rekindled inflation and higher interest rates."
Atkinson, 30, says he is "kind of a macro-economist," as far as the federal government is concerned.
"The federal government could have both a positive and negative effect within the state of Virginia, in that proposed military cuts could hurt the economy in the eastern part of the state and the Radford arsenal in the western part," he said. "But also, if new federal programs are initiated, it could have a positive influence on the western part of the state."
For the Clinton administration, Atkinson believes "they'll find it very difficult to cut the deficit."
\ Grace Duncan, manager of Sweeney's Drive-in in Riner, says the economy as it stands now is "doing pretty poorly." And, she said, she doesn't know what to expect for the remainder of the year.
"I think maybe it will get a little better," she said. "but I don't know if this old world will ever be OK again."
Duncan recalls a time when she was working at Russell Apparel when the "cutting room was the only one working."
"We'd send the cuttings overseas to be sewn," she said. "The other department wouldn't work."
Now Duncan manages the drive-in restaurant and hopes the year will improve. The main thing this country needs, she says, is more jobs.
"There's been so many of our jobs being done overseas," she said. "I know they need the work, too, but things here are in poor shape."
Despite this bleak outlook, Duncan thinks things could be worse. There are other parts of the country, she says, that are probably in worse shape than the New River Valley.
\ Rochelle Ireland, reading and English teacher at Blacksburg High School, has high hopes for this year's economy.
"I think it will be better," she said. "I'm optimistic about it - I'm tired of being pessimistic."
And with a new administration in the White House, she said, there comes change. "At least [Clinton is] telling us it will be better, so I'm hoping," she said.
On a local level, Ireland also feels positive.
"The economy seems to be turning around a little in the New River Valley," she said. "At least, even though we've lost more than we've gained, we're still adding some new jobs."
As a teacher, Ireland hopes the economy will fare well in education, too.
"As far as Wilder goes, he's saying no raise for us - and, of course, we're hoping that gets changed," she said. "We're lobbying for it."
Teachers got a raise for the 1992-93 school year, but did not receive one the year before.
\ For Richard Clinger, pharmacist of the Floyd Pharmacy, the economy better pick up this year. Beginning Feb. 1, he is planning to expand his pharmacy to take over the florist shop next door, which is moving up the street.
"We've just outgrown the space we have here," he said.
Clinger isn't sure what will happen to the economy, but from people he's talked to, hope is in the air.
"I think with . . . Clinton coming to office people are having more hope," he said.
Clinger admits the economy is poor now, but that is not what has him worried.
"My main concern is health care," he said. "I hope [Clinton] does something with health reform. We need some sort of health care system."
On the local level, Clinger says times seem to be changing.
"When they closed Pannill Knitting things got hard," he said. "But now that Cross Creek [Apparel - a division of Russell Apparel] is opened, things seem to have picked up."
\ As a Nationwide Insurance agent, Kelly Shelton says his business is a pretty good indicator of economic conditions. With auto insurance, for example, when the economy is good, auto insurance policies increase.
In hard times, Shelton said, he sees two results. Either car insurance sales will decrease as people hold off on buying cars, or car owners with more than one car may sell one of their cars for the extra money.
"We lose policies when times are tight," Shelton said, "but also we gain policies because people tend to shop more and we have competitive rates."
Another indicator of the economy, Shelton said, is that when people have less money, they tend not to invest in retirement plans and other financial services offered by his company.
"But, people have been looking toward alternative investments because [certificates of deposit] aren't performing well," Shelton added.
As far as Clinton's job to help the economy goes, Shelton thinks one man can't make all the difference.
"He's coming into a situation where the economy's already on an upturn," he said. "It will certainly make his job easier."
Shelton says he thinks Clinton's major job ahead is to offset the deficit. "I think he'll have to raise taxes to do that," he said. "That's the only way I can see."