SCHOOL ENROLLMENT NO LONGER DECLINING

                         Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: SUNDAY, January 24, 1993                   TAG: 9301260400
SECTION: NEW RIVER VALLEY ECONOMY                    PAGE: 6   EDITION: NEW RIVER VALLEY 
SOURCE: ROBERT FREIS STAFF WRITER
DATELINE:                                 LENGTH: Medium
SCHOOL ENROLLMENT NO LONGER DECLINING
The reversal of a decade-long decline in the population of Montgomery County schools may reflect improving economic conditions.
Projections indicate the number of students may actually grow up to 8 percent over the next 10 years, after declining by nearly 10 percent from 1977 to 1987.
School population projections don't necessarily mirror general economic conditions. But they are compiled from data sources that measure economic trends.
Census data, building permits, housing starts, birth rates and other statistics point toward as many as 1,200 more students in county schools soon after the turn of the century.
This increase, apparently flowing against the tide of persistent setbacks such as plant closings and job layoffs, is a tangible indication that the worst is over.
More students may indicate that the area's economy has bottomed out and is exhibiting more encouraging signs of stability, said Glen Earthman, a Virginia Tech professor who conducts demographic forecasting for Montgomery County schools.
"The numbers are starting to come back up. We're seeing a small growth now, and predicting larger growth later on," he said.
From a high of 9,563 during the 1977-78 school year, the county schools' population fell to 8,525 in 1985-86. Now, the number of students enrolled is about 8,600.
The decline in student population probably was tied to the loss of manufacturing jobs in Montgomery County during the same period, Earthman said.
The school system forecasts student population to anticipate building and staffing requirements and to plan funding strategies.
"The value is being able to plan for future needs, so we can anticipate where students will be and where building requirements will be," said Larry Schoff, Montgomery County schools' director of facility maintenance.
The information is as vital to the school system - one of the county's largest businesses and employers - as it would be to any other industry.
More students present good news for the economy, and growing financial challenges for county schools.
One new school, Falling Branch Elementary, was opened this year in Christiansburg, and construction is to begin in several months on a new elementary school in Blacksburg.
In addition, growth has an impact on staffing levels for schools and on renovations and improvements to existing or antiquated buildings.
These costly factors are straining local sources of revenue. Already about three-fourths of the county budget goes to support county schools, and the state's participation in sharing those expenses is dwindling.
The difference may have to be made up by raising taxes.
Recent school population growth has been strongest in Christiansburg and Blacksburg, Earthman said, although less densely populated areas such as Riner, Shawsville and Elliston also are growing.
Near Riner's Auburn High School, three farms have been subdivided for residences, and new homes are springing up on traditional agricultural land all over southwestern Montgomery County.
Earthman interviewed some people who have moved to homes in that area. Several who moved from other parts of the state or nation said they were attracted by Montgomery County's combination of countryside and social and cultural opportunities created by Virginia Tech and Radford University.
"Quality of life was an important consideration," he said.
Earthman also found that many new residents are self-employed and chose to settle in Montgomery County from a wide range of other places to live.
Growth also may intensify in other areas of the county. The Virginia 177 corridor west of Radford has been the focus of a cooperative development plan between the county and the city of Radford. And a new water line is planned to extend along U.S. 460 between Christiansburg and Shawsville.
School growth, he noted, is "associated with economic opportunity and the general desirability of the community in which to live."

by Bhavesh Jinadra by CNB