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                         Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: WEDNESDAY, February 3, 1993                   TAG: 9302030063
SECTION: BUSINESS                    PAGE: C6   EDITION: METRO 
SOURCE: Associated Press
DATELINE: WASHINGTON                                LENGTH: Medium

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INDICATORS SEND STRONGEST SIGNAL IN DECADE

The government's chief economic forecasting gauge jumped sharply in December, flashing its most positive signal for future growth in nearly a decade.

The report, issued by the Commerce Department on Tuesday, is the clearest signs yet of continued economic growth past midyear.

"Even if the numbers are somewhat overstated, there's no question they show we have economic growth ahead of us," said economist David Berson of the Federal National Mortgage Association.

The Department's Index of Leading Indicators was up 1.9 percent, the third consecutive monthly gain and the biggest increase since April 1983, when the nation was emerging from the last recession.

Nine of the index's 11 leading indicators were positive:

A 14 percent jump in consumer confidence levels as measured by a University of Michigan survey.

A drop in the average weekly number of unemployment benefit claims from 372,000 to 334,000.

An increase in new orders to factories for consumer goods.

A rise in contracts for business equipment and new commercial buildings.

A slower drop in the backlog of unfilled orders at factories.

A rise in building permits.

A rise in stock prices as measured by the Standard & Poor's 500.

A tenth-of-an-hour increase in the average factory work week to 41.3 hours.

A slowdown in delivery times, a sign that businesses are less easily meeting demand.

Two indicators were negative. The inflation-adjusted money supply and the price of raw materials declined, a sign of lax demand.

The various changes left the index at a seasonally adjusted 153.0, up 5.7 percent from a year ago and 3.2 percent from three months ago.

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