Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: SUNDAY, February 21, 1993 TAG: 9302210014
SECTION: NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL PAGE: A-6 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: Associated Press
DATELINE: WASHINGTON LENGTH: Medium
YELTSIN OUSTER PREDICTED
In unusually candid remarks, a top State Department official is predicting the early ouster of Russian President Boris Yeltsin because he's "just about at the end of his usefulness."The forecast came in a little-noticed speech last Tuesday in Tennessee by Richard Armitage, who coordinates U.S. assistance to the former republics of the Soviet Union.
In response to a question, Armitage called Yeltsin a man of "enormous personal courage" but said he lacks a "grand vision" and the ability to work well with Russia's legislative branch.
Yeltsin's term does not expire until 1996 but Armitage indicated he believes Russia will have a new leader long before then.
"Not unlike [former President Mikhail] Gorbachev, his days are somewhat numbered," Armitage said. "I think he's about at the end of his usefulness and someone else will step on the scene."
He declined to offer a more specific prediction but added that Yeltsin's longevity might be extended somewhat because, for now, his rivals are content to let him take "the spears of hard decisions."
It is extremely rare for U.S. diplomats to speculate publicly about the staying power of a foreign leader, particularly if he represents an important country and his views parallel those of the United States, a description that fits Yeltsin.
Armitage agreed it was important for the Clinton administration to continue support for the reform movement. He said the Bush administration made the mistake of sticking with Gorbachev even after Gorbachev had become, at one point "anti-reform."
Reached by telephone Saturday, Armitage said he does not consider himself part of the normal diplomatic establishment because he is serving the Clinton administration as a consultant.
He began that role during the Bush administration and was asked by the new administration to remain until a replacement is found. He plans to launch his own private research firm after leaving government service in May.
During the Reagan administration, he was an assistant secretary of defense and later served as negotiator for a new base agreement with the Philippines.
Armitage said Saturday his remarks last week to the Vanderbilt Institute for Public Policy Studies were delivered in his "personal capacity" as a consultant.
A tape of his comments was made available to The Associated Press.
The Clinton administration values the role Yeltsin has played as a champion of democratic reform. Secretary of State Warren Christopher plans to meet with Russian Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev this week in Geneva to try to arrange a summit with Yeltsin.