by Archana Subramaniam by CNB
Roanoke Times Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc. DATE: SATURDAY, February 27, 1993 TAG: 9302270066 SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: A3 EDITION: NEW RIVER VALLEY SOURCE: ROB EURE STAFF WRITER DATELINE: LENGTH: Medium
GOP CAMPAIGNERS PLAY `LIAR'S POKER'
Ray Ergenbright, chairman of the Staunton Republican Party, sent his city's list of GOP state convention delegates to the party's three gubernatorial campaigns this week with this message:"The following people have agreed to be inundated with mailings, confused with the facts and otherwise exposed to the political process of campaigning."
A new Republican nomination process, hailed in December by party leaders who said it would streamline selection of their candidates and send a unified party into the June 6-7 convention in Richmond, now seems likely to produce neither result.
If anything, the delegate selections that have begun quietly this month across the state have muddled prospects for any candidate to claim a clear majority by the time the selection process is complete at the end of March.
Not that the campaigns aren't trying. A fax war has broken out in the past two weeks as the campaigns of former U.S. Rep. George Allen of Charlottesville and retired Northern Virginia businessman Earle Williams trade claims and counterclaims of strength based on early filings for delegate seats.
"It's a dumb process, but we understand it and nobody else does," said Steve Haner, spokesman for the Williams campaign. "That's democracy."
Haner said the campaigns are playing "liar's poker," to try and create momentum as more localities reach deadlines for people to sign up as convention delegates. `I'll tell you right honestly, I might be lying to you," Haner said.
In most localities, Republicans who bother to sign up to go to the state convention will be automatically elected as delegates.
That's because GOP leaders are splitting each of the 2,000 convention votes five ways, meaning up to five people can attend the convention for each delegate slot.
The turnout may match the biggest political convention in Virginia history: the 1978 Republican meeting to select a U.S. Senate nominee. And it may be every bit as unpredictable as that convention, which went six ballots before selecting the late Richard Obenshain.
In none of the handful of localities where delegate signup deadlines have passed has the number of people filing exceeded the number allowed. That means that canvasses, at which the rank-and-file would vote their preferences, have been canceled and the campaigns left free to argue over who has the most support.
"We go into each locality knowing a certain number are supporting us because we are actually filing on behalf of those people ourselves," said Jay Timmons, spokesman for the Allen campaign. "Then we try to poll the other people who file by telephone and get a number."
The Allen and Williams forces squabble over delegate counts locality by locality. In general, Allen is the favorite in the Richmond area and much of Western and Southside Virginia. Williams claims strength in Northern Virginia and much of Hampton Roads.
The third candidate, Del. Clinton Miller of Shenandoah, expects to show strength in the Shenandoah Valley and elsewhere in the west.
Many of those signing up now to be state convention delegates might not attend. But between now and the first week of June, when the delegates convene, each can expect heavy lobbying from Allen, Williams and Miller.
Candidates for lieutenant governor and attorney general also are recruiting delegates, some of whom may not have decided on a gubernatorial candidate.
Delegates attracted by those candidates could comprise 15 percent to 25 percent of the convention turnout.
So the regional trends and the conventional betting that have made Allen the early favorite may be difficult to prove until delegates gather in Richmond.
Allen's campaign maintains its confidence that it will take the nomination easily on the first ballot.
But both his rivals claim Allen's support is shallow and slipping. And they promise to spend the next three months working on delegates to switch sides.
"None of these people are really committed," Haner said. "They can vote any way they want when they get to the convention. These people are not lemmings, they are elephants."
Keywords:
POLITICS
Memo: shorter version ran in the Metro edition.