Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: SUNDAY, February 28, 1993 TAG: 9303010210
SECTION: EDITORIAL PAGE: F-3 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: MARSHALL W. FISHWICK
DATELINE: LENGTH: Medium
DEATH TO DECLINISM
ON THIS we can all agree: We face a crisis. Crisis: a turning point; the moment in the course of a disease in which a decisive change occurs, leading either to recovery or death. We think of the crisis in the intensive care unit, or the emergency room. But there are national crises too. We face one in 1993.History abounds with moments of crisis: the Greeks at Thermopylae, the Allies at Waterloo, the Russians at Leningrad. And don't forget the shivering Continentals at Valley Forge. Thomas Paine was right when he told the embattled freedom fighters and patriots: "These are the times that try men's souls." They are being tried again.
Not in the same place or the same way, of course. This time the battles are not military but economic and political. We seem to be saddled with a debt that won't shrink, a government that can't govern and a society that can't cope. The major challenges on the global scene are clear enough - overpopulation, pollution, poverty, anarchy. What is lacking is any clear vision of how to solve them.
Things look bad, and perhaps the worst is yet to come. That is the theme of Paul Kennedy's new book, "Preparing for the Twenty-first Century." In his earlier (1987) and best-selling "Rise and Fall of the Great Powers," Kennedy suggested that - like Spain, France and Britain before us - we have sacrificed domestic prosperity for military power. The book was responsible for formulating the widely held notion of American "declinism."
His well-documented new book tends to confirm his earlier fears. We were so pleased with being the superpower that won the Desert Storm in the Middle East that we contnued to ignore the brewing storm in our own land. The result, says Kennedy, is "slow, steady, relative decline - in comparative living standards, educational levels, technical skills, social provisions, industria1 leadership and ultimately national power."
He goes on to predict that shocks and outbursts (such as the Los Angeles riots) might lead to some adjustments and changes. Even so, he warns, if there is such a catylist, there surely could be "no coherent response by the United States unless the political leadership - especially the president - recognized the larger challenges facing the country and had the courage and ability to mobilize opinion to accept changes which many would find uncomfortable."
In his Feb. 17 economic message to Congress, President Clinton recognized those challenges and had the courage to tell us what must be done. He asked Americans to accept a tough $499-billion plan to curb the deficit and stimulate the economy. His prediction of things to come was as grim as Professor Kennedy's: "If we do not act now, we will not recognize this country 10 years from now." Declinism will have taken over and the American Dream would have become the American Nightmare.
His bold speech electrified Congress and the American people. Some of my friends in the railroad town of Roanoke expressed themselves in terms railroaders understand. "The Red Ball Express is moving down the main track, picking up speed. Democracy and the economy are rolling again, and Bill Clinton is at the throttle."
A few days earlier, they had been complaining that he got off to a slow start. He seemed to have two left feet - or, to the railroaders, he couldn't get out of the roundhouse. But he did. When Americans heard his congressional speech, they knew he was really up to full steam.
Now begins the most bare-knuckle economic fight since Roosevelt's New Deal. Clinton's opponents will come from every class, region and ideology. He must battle not only Republicans but also Democrats; special interests and entrenched interests; hawks and doves; blacks and whites; young and old.
Instead of being Clinton's nemesis, this infighting and hostility might be his hope. If everybody finds fault with his deficit plan, perhaps no one will be able to block it. The greater the pain, and the more widely it's spread, the better the odds are for passage. That is the Washington way. Richard Gephardt, the House majority leader, understands this. "The people who generally think it's a good idea will be quiet at first," Gephardt said. "But in the long run, they will prevail."
If they do, inclinism will take over from declinism. The special interests, hysterical one-issue fanatics, lobbyists and me-too minorities will be foiled. Then the Red Ball Express can roll on to its destination. Our winter of discontent will turn into a springtime of recovery.
The most important thing to realize is that this is a crisis; and that our future and our children's future depend on how we react right now. President Clinton made this crystal clear in his address: "Americans have called for change, and now it is up to those of us in this room to deliver."
An old Welsh hymn, known there as "Ton-Y-Botel," carries the same message. It begins, "Once to every man and nation/Comes the moment to decide."
That moment has come for us here in the United States. It is the decision of the decade - perhaps of the century.
Marshall W. Fishwick is professor of humanities and communication studies at Virginia Tech.