Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: SUNDAY, February 28, 1993 TAG: 9303020296
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: A-1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: JEFF DeBELL STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: LENGTH: Long
WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?
Today, the Roanoke Times & World-News undertakes a fresh examination of economic issues that affect us and the way we live today and will live tomorrow. This first installment appears after a year of planning and research. Other reports will follow over the next year.
If you follow economic news, you know the tidings around here have been mixed lately.
Every gain seems offset by a loss, every cheerleader by a naysayer. It's confusing and, frankly, nerve-wracking.
There was a net gain of jobs in 1992. That's a plus - though some will quibble about the quality of the new jobs. But there will be hundreds of layoffs later this year because of the Dominion-First Union merger and the closing of Sears' Telecatalog Center.
That's a downer by any measure.
In some income and wage categories, we lag behind the rest of the state. Other statistics are more encouraging.
There's the population thing. It's been flat, basically, and a few localities in our part of Virginia actually lost population between 1980 and 1990. Some see that as a sign of decay. Others like it just fine; they'd rather catch a virus than see any more people move in.
Folks who do live here tend to skew a few years older than state and national median ages despite the large college-age populations in Blacksburg and Radford. Many localities have above-average concentrations of over-65s, too.
Pessimists may view that as a sign that too many young people are leaving (though professional demographers are leery of such conclusions). The more optimistic view would be that our area has an attractive quality of life and therefore is a good place to retire; hence, the higher median age.
Not that all is well in the quality-of-life department. Cultural organizations like the Roanoke Symphony have seen a deep erosion of financial support and some are cutting back their programs.
Unimportant to most people? Depends on how you look at it. Joe Roanoke may not know Mozart from Monet, but the factory where he works could be there at least partly because the owner was impressed by the local museum or orchestra. The presence of cultural organizations can be of real value in landing industrial prospects.
So can sports franchises, which means efforts to hang onto the Roanoke Valley Rampage - a minor-league ice hockey team - could be more important than you might suspect. Owner Larry Revo and the Roanoke Civic Center Commission were in negotiations at last report, but it didn't look promising.
Even more discouraging was the recent outcome of efforts to land Norfolk Southern Corp.'s national customer service center for the Roanoke Valley. An $8 million inducement package was assembled, but the railroad decided to put the center (and its 400 jobs) in Atlanta.
Atlanta always had the inside track - that's where the railroad's systemwide operations center is headquartered - so city economic development officials weren't particularly surprised by the decision. Indeed, they seemed pleased just to have been able to put together a proposal that the railroad took seriously.
Economic hopes currently are pinned to the $40 million Hotel Roanoke restoration project, funds for which are coming from community, corporate and public sources. Not only would it bring the landmark back to life and create jobs, supporters say, but it will foster an important economic alliance between the Roanoke Valley and Virginia Tech, which will operate the facility as a hotel and conference center.
Then again, detractors say the plan will never work because our area already has a surplus of hotel rooms.
You get the picture. The Roanoke Valley and its neighbors are like countless other places around the country. Our economic outlook is neither wholly bleak nor especially good, and every development is subject to varying interpretations.
But one clear message does emerge from the mix: The economy is big news, and it looks like it's going to stay that way.
For that reason, the Roanoke Times & World-News is undertaking a fresh examination of economic issues that affect us and the way we live today and will live tomorrow. Our coverage begins today with the first reports on the new Roanoke Valley Poll. It will continue indefinitely, perhaps for as long as a year, with stories appearing frequently but not according to a set schedule.
Editorials will be a part of the project. Planning was carried out jointly by the editorial and news departments, but published material will be prepared independently.
News stories and editorials will run under the heading, "Peril and Promise: Our Jobs, Our Kids, Our Future." A "Peril and Promise" logo, also being introduced today, will appear with both news stories and editorials.
The title is meant to imply that our part of Virginia faces a period that has characteristics of risk as well as opportunity, and that the choices we make will have wide-ranging repercussions.
Risk, of course, is a constant in a post-recession America and in a turn-of-the-century economy that increasingly ignores national boundaries. Business decisions made today in Roanoke-area boardrooms can easily reverberate in the homes of factory workers in Asia or Central America, and vice versa. Those choices also can help to determine whether the Roanoke region will be a player in the developing global economy, or merely a bystander.
Our coverage will look at decisions and trends that have brought us to this point. It will closely examine existing conditions, and it will look ahead.
Actually, with the help of the appropriate experts, we will be looking at two futures. We'll try to figure out what will happen if we continue more or less on the present path, and we'll look at what could happen if the region aggressively pursues its piece of the global economy.
Clearly, that goes to the question of leadership. Respondents to the Roanoke Valley Poll were not brimming with confidence in the ability of local political leaders to lead the way to prosperity. They detected a shortage of "vision," and the leadership/vision topic is one we will be exploring.
There will be more stories related to the poll, too. The poll was designed in part to dovetail with our reporting, and it touches on themes that will run throughout the coverage.
We will explore the notion of growth, for example - a subject that the poll shows to inspire mixed and sometimes strong feelings among people who live here.
What exactly is meant by growth? Can there be economic growth without population growth? What are the costs of growth, and are they worth paying? Do economic prosperity and quality of life have to be mutually exclusive?
It's clear from the poll results that folks around here love the mountains, so we will explore them, too. Not by hiking their scenic byways, but by finding out what the mountains mean economically and even in a psychological sense.
Are they an asset? If so, are they being exploited properly? Are they a liability, perhaps as a physical barrier to expansion? Do they protect us from outside intrusion and uncontrolled growth, or do we hunker down behind them while other parts of Virginia and the world move ahead without us?
That's what Norfolk Southern Corp. Chairman David Goode said, in effect, during a recent speech to Roanoke Valley business leaders. He also said the valley and its neighbors will pay severe economic penalties if outdated attitudes and practices are not overcome.
Goode isn't the only one to express disappointment. Many poll respondents see the Roanoke Valley "getting worse" as a place to work, and they don't foresee much improvement for the next generation of job-seekers. A significant number of poll respondents felt their children will have to move away to find decent jobs.
It's a refrain heard widely, but is there evidence to support it? Using population figures and other data, we'll try to find out what really is going on. Is there all that much one-way traffic between here and Sunbelt hot spots like Charlotte and Atlanta? Is there really a problem?
To put a human face on the subject, we will trace the whereabouts of the members of a past graduating class from a local high school. It's not scientific, we know, but we think it'll be revealing.
We'll look at the implications of the region's elevated median age, too. An older population can have its advantages - less need for schools and teachers. But does that make it desirable?
We will explore other economic assets our region may have, and to what extent they are being exploited. Are we well positioned in fiber optics? Medical services? Telemarketing? Can our part of the state be a viable tourist destination, or is that mostly wishful thinking by few entrepreneurs?
We will examine communities that share some of the characteristics and have tackled some of the problems that we face, and we'll report what happened.
We'll use data of all kinds. We'll talk with a lot of experts, and of course with the people who live and work here.
Maybe we will even turn up some fresh ideas. At the very least, we hope to give our readers a clearer idea of what's going on economically and what it means - why, for example, the layoff of a banker might affect the life of a sanitation worker or a sales clerk much more than he or she realizes.