WHAT WE THINK ABOUT WHERE WE'RE GOING

                         Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: SUNDAY, February 28, 1993                   TAG: 9303020348
SECTION: HORIZON                    PAGE: F-1   EDITION: METRO 
SOURCE: 
DATELINE:                                 LENGTH: Long
WHAT WE THINK ABOUT WHERE WE'RE GOING
Here's what the latest Roanoke Valley Poll shows: People love the Roanoke Valley, but they're worried that it has problems. Most people agree what the biggest one is - a lack of good-paying jobs. They just disagree on what to do about it.
Most people really like the population of the valley.
What's the perfect size of the Roanoke Valley?
About same size it is now:66%
Smaller 17%
Larger 16%

. . . And they don't want to see it change much . . .
During the 1980s, the Roanoke Valley's population grew by just 2 percent and most people think that's just fine. Here's what folks said about the current rate of population growth:
Current growth rate:
About right 56.5
Too slow 21%
Too fast 13%
Want an increase in growth rate?
Disagree 57.5%
Agree 34%
Unsure 8.5%

. . . But people are worried about the Roanoke Valley's economy. . .
This fear turns up in several ways. For starters, most say the current rate of economic growth is too slow.
66 % say too slow
25 % about right
3 % too fast

. . . These fears for the future are increasing . . .
In 1989, 40.5% of those surveyed said they were "very concerned" about the valley's economic prospects. By 1992, that number had jumped to 57%.
How concerned about you about the decline in the valley's economic growth?
1989 1992
Very 40.5 % 57 %
Somewhat 45 % 30 %
Not very 10 % 4 %
Not at all * 2 %
Unsure 10 % 7 %
* This option not given in earlier poll.

People's biggest gripe, by far, about the Roanoke Valley is lack of job opportunities.
70% say that's what they dislike most about the valley. No other concern even came close.

Most people think the valley, as a place to work, is getting worse.
Getting worse 54 %
Staying same 35 %
Getting better11 %

Most are convinced their children won't be able to find good jobs in the Roanoke Valley.
65 % say they think their kids will move someplace else.
19 % say they think their kids will stay.
16 % don't know.

Most people think they're secure in their job. But they're convinced they'd have a hard time finding another one making the same amount of money.
Likelihood you'll be laid off or fired in the next 12 months?
Not at all likely 59 %
Not too likely 26 %
Fairly likely 10 %
Very likely 4 %

How easy would it be to find a job with another employer offering the same income and fringe benefits?
Not easy at all 55 %
Somewhat easy 26 %
Very easy 19 %

People don't think the valley offers good jobs for either high school graduates or college graduates - and that's a switch.
Two years ago, the poll showed people split about whether the valley offered good job opportunities for high school graduates, although most agreed the valley did not offer good job opportunities for college graduates.
Since then, though, the people who believed the valley offers good job opportunities for high school graduates have had their confidence dramatically undermined. Where 43% once said the valley offered good job opportunities for high school grads, now only 16% do. Instead, most people think the prospects for either high school or college grads in the valley are about the same: not very good, and getting worse. More than 66% say things don't look good here for high school grads; 71% say things don't look good for college grads.
Valley offers good job opportunities for high school graduates.
1990 1992
Agree 43% 16%
Disagree 48% 66.5%
Unsure 9% 18%

Valley offers good job opportunities for college grads.
1990 1992
Agree 27% 15%
Disagree 56% 71%
Unsure 16.5% 14%

But there's something people aren't worried about - population growth. The fear of becoming another Charlotte is vastly exaggerated.
It's true that the valley's desire for more economic growth doesn't translate into a desire for population growth. If anything, people are more determined than ever to keep the valley the same size. In 1990, only 39% wanted to see valley grow faster; now only 34% do. Back then, 53% didn't want to see faster growth; now 56% don't.
On the other hand, the fear of too much population growth, often expressed in terms of "becoming another Charlotte," seems remote to most people.
Given a list of 11 possible threats to the valley, "too much growth" ranked last, cited by only 3.5% of those surveyed.
Contrary to popular belief, the fear of too much growth doesn't seem tied to age. Senior citizens ranked the fear of "too much growth" every bit as remote as young adults did.

Most people want government to do something about the economy - and they want local governments to work together on it.
Only 4.5% say they're willing to let market forces take care of the local economy. Virtually all the rest want government involved somehow, and they're looking mostly to local governments to fix the local economy. In a valley that's cross-hatched by different jurisdictions, the people also have a clear message to local governments: Work together. Only 4% say they want local governments to work independently on economic development, as they now do.
What the best plan for economic development?
Local governments working together 50 %
Coalition of private industry and government 19 %
Don't know 17 %
Market forces 4.5%
Local governments work independently 4 %
State government 3 %
Federal government 2 %

Most people also think governmental cooperation will improve the quality of life in the Roanoke Valley more than anything else.
How high does governmental cooperation rank on the public's wish list? Higher than better schools, higher than better housing, higher than anything else, in fact. Given a wish list of 14 things to improve the valley's quality life and asked to pick three, here's what people chose:
More governmental cooperation 51 %
Strengthen downtown 42 %
More youth facilities 38 %
Better housing 28 %
Better schools 25 %
Mandatory recycling 23 %
Better neighborhoods 18 %
Better roads and bridges 15 %
Focus on arts 12 %
Improved parks 12 %
Better recreation 11 %
Fewer people 5 %
Other 5 %
Better shopping 4 %

Yet many people are concerned that government isn't doing the job.
They say the two biggest threats the valley faces are "few high-wage jobs" - and "ineffective government." Given a list of 11 choices and asked to pick which two pose the greatest threats to the valley, here's what people said:
Ineffective government 44 %
Few high-wage jobs 36.5 %
High taxes 28 %
Lost family values 19 %
Poverty 19 %
Ineffective schools 15 %
No funds for growth 15 %
Race relations 9 %
No space for growth 5.5%
Few tourist attractions 5.5%
Too much growth 3.5 %

Against this backdrop of economic angst, there's a yearning for "the vision thing."
One out of five people surveyed cited "little community vision" as one of the things they disliked most about the Roanoke Valley, ranking it No. 6 overall on their top 10 list of dislikes.

However, this quest for "the vision thing" comes up mostly among those with college degrees and incomes over $40,000:

Almost half of those with college degrees cited "little community vision" as something they dislike. It was their second biggest gripe about the valley, behind only lack of jobs.
Likewise, almost half of those making more than $40,000 cited lack of vision as a problem. It, too, was their second biggest gripe.
Even elected officials complain about a lack of vision; 7 of 12 municipal leaders surved cited that as one of their chief dislikes. It tied with drugs for first place with them.
Keep this in mind. This gap between what upper-income people want and the rest of the population will become a factor later on.

There's no consensus among the public about what that vision should be. Or is there?
What do people think Roanoke's reputation should be in the 21st century? The biggest group of folks are looking to a sector of the economy that's not growing much - manufacturing. But other options also have a strong base of adherents. Is that evidence that the people themselves don't agree what the Roanoke Valley should become? Or is it a sign that the public understands the valley needs a diverse economy and shouldn't bet the farm on any one sector? The experts disagree.
Industrial and manufacturing center 33 %
Educational center 20 %
High-tech center 20 %
Health-care innovator 14 %
Tourism and convention center 6 %
Cultural center 5 %
Other 3 %

Whatever the cause, elected officials, when asked the same question, were just as divided, although they were more favorable toward tourism and less interested in education or health-care. Of the 12 who responded, 3 said industrial and manufacturing, 3 said tourism and convention center, 3 said high-tech center, 2 said educational center, and 1 said health-care innovator.

Nevertheless, the public does seem to have a clear sense of what ought to be done right now.

Most want the Roanoke Valley to concentrate on attracting manufacturing jobs and high-tech jobs. Given a choice of six options for an economic development strategy and asked to pick two, here's how many people checked each option:
Attracting manufacturing jobs 70 %
Attracting high-tech jobs 58.5 %
Promoting tourism 23 %
Attracting service jobs 20 %
Completion of convention center 19 %
Closer ties with Virginia Tech 8 %

On closer inspection, though, the people disagree among themselves about what ought to be done about the valley's economy.

For starters, some are more worried than others. Those who make the most money are those who are the most worried about the valley's economy.
The fear that the valley, as a place to work, is getting worse rises with one's income.

Who says things are getting worse?
44 % of those making less than $10,000
46 % of those making $10,000-$19,999
51 % of those making $20,000-$29,999
54 % of those making $30,000-$39,999
59 % of those making more than $40,000

Who thinks the valley's rate of economic growth is too slow?
42 % of those making less than $10,000
61 % of those making $10,000-$19,999
59.5 % of those making $20,000-$29,999
77.5 % of those making $30,000-$39,999
80 % of those making more than $40,000

What do you dislike most about the Roanoke Valley?
Those making less than $20,000 listed crime as their biggest dislike. Lack of jobs came in second.
Those making more than $20,000 listed jobs first.
Those familiar with polling cite several factors for this. Most say this is how it's always been, anywhere in the country. They say people making less money are too busy just trying to get by, and don't have the time that more affluent citizens do to worry about larger economic questions. Others think this may be a more recent phenomenon, because the latest recession hit upper-income earners harder than usual. Still others add that part of this may be a uniquely Roanoke phenomenon. They say those people making more money have always had more at risk in Roanoke, because the valley offers few high-wage jobs.
Regardless, the implication for public policy is clear: Anyone promoting economic growth must make a special effort to show less affluent citizens why they should be concerned about growth.

Those who make the most money also are those most inclined to say they want the valley to be bigger in population.

Most people, as noted earlier, want the valley to stay the same size it is. However, the minority that wants faster population growth is concentrated among those with incomes of more than $40,000.

Who says the valley's population growth is too slow?
13 % of those making less than $10,000
18 % of those making $10,000-$19,999
15 % of those making $20,000-$29,999
22.5 % of those making $30,000-$39,999
33 % of those making more than $40,000

Who wants the valley's population to be somewhat larger?
3 % of those making less than $10,000
7 % of those making $10,000-$19,999
10 % of those making $20,000-$29,999
10 % of those making $30,000-$39,999
24 % of those making more than $40,000

There are several clear messages in these numbers: First, anyone promoting population growth is facing an uphill fight. Second, anyone promoting population growth must show how that will create economic growth. Third, even then, anyone promoting population growth as a means to spur economic growth must make a special effort to show less affluent citizens why that should matter to them.

People also are divided along income lines about what is the biggest threat the valley faces.

People who make more money tend to be more worried about a lack of high-wage jobs. Those who make less are more concerned about high taxes. But everybody's concerned about ineffective government.
What are the greatest threats to the Roanoke Valley?

Those making more than $30,000 say ineffective government and a lack of high-wage jobs.
Those making $20,000-$29,999 say ineffective government and high taxes.
Those making $10,000-$19,999 rank high taxes and ineffective government.
Those making less than $10,000 say poverty and high taxes.

The implication for public policy: Anyone promoting economic growth must take pains to show people that it won't increase their taxes, because those people making less than $30,000 are more worried about higher taxes than they are a lack of high-wage jobs.

People also are divided along income lines about the kinds of jobs they'd like to see the Roanoke Valley attract - although this division may be easily bridged.

Those making less than $30,000 listed manufacturing as their first choice. Those making more than $30,000 voted for high-tech.

Those with high school education or less listed manufacturing as their top choice. Those with a college degree ranked high-tech first.

How people with a high school education think the valley should promote economic development:
Attract manufacturing jobs 40.5 %
Attract high-tech jobs 30 %
Attract service jobs 11 %
Complete convention center 8 %
Promote tourism 8 %
Closer ties with Virginia Tech 2 %

How people with college degrees think the valley should promote economic development:
Attract high-tech jobs 64 %
Attract manufacturing 24 %
Promote tourism 14 %
Complete convention center 14 %
Attract service jobs 8 %
Closer ties with Virginia Tech 5 %

How views on economic development strategy differ by income:
Under $10,000 $10,000-$19,999 $20,000-$29,999 $30,000-$39,999 Over $40,000 Manuf. 36% Man. 41% Man. 38% Hitech 39% Hitech 36% Service 24% Hitech 26% Hitch 29% Manu. 29% Manu. 31% High-tech 19% Tourism 12% Tour. 11% Toursm 14% Tourism 13% Tourism 10% Service 10% Srvice10% CCtr 12% CCtr 11% Conv. ctr 8.5% Conv ctr 9% CCtr 7.5% Service11% Service 5% Tech 3% Tech 2% Tech 4% Tech 4% Tech 4%
Many economists say the disparity between more affluent citizens wanting high-tech and less affluent ones wanting manufacturing can be easily overcome, because the distinction between the two lines of work are blurring, and in the future, they'll be the same thing: high-tech manufacturing.

But the differences between localities may not be so easily overcome.

Where one stands depends on where one sits - or lives. The people who live in the city, county and Salem have different opinions of what the valley's biggest threat is.
In Salem, it's high taxes. In Roanoke, it's lack of high-wage jobs.
In Roanoke County, it's ineffective government - although it's impossible to tell whether people in the county meant theirs, or someone else's.

If people living in different jurisdictions have different ideas of what the threats to the valley are, that could explain why valley governments sometime have such trouble agreeing on anything - because the people themselves don't agree.

There's also a big difference between what the people want and their elected leaders want.

Generally speaking, most people and their leaders agree the valley should concentrate on attracting high-tech jobs. But after that, they part company. While most people also want to focus on attracting manufacturing jobs, elected officials say the valley should focus on promoting tourism and building a convention center.

Should attacting manufacturing jobs be a priority?
Nearly 3/4 of the people say yes; only 1/4 of the elected officials say yes.
Should promoting tourism be a priority?
Less than 1/4 of the people say yes; 1/2 of the elected officials say yes.
Should building a downtown convention center be a priority?
Less than 1/5 of the people say yes; 1/2 of the elected officials say yes.

For a subject that's been pushed so hard by elected leaders, tourism stirs surprisingly little enthusiasm from the public.

Everybody seems to like tourism, but it's not a high priority for most. Most people think the valley has potential as a tourist attraction.
71.5 % agree
18 % disagree
10 % unsure

But not many think tourism is the key to attracting more businesses or job opportunities. Given a list of 15 ways to increase job opportunities, the people ranked tourism 11th. And very few think Roanoke's reputation in the 21st century should be built on tourism - only 6 percent.

When it comes to leading the valley into the 21st century, people have more faith in the business community than they do their political leaders.

How effectively can our current political leadership lead us into the 21st century?
19 % say very effectively
60 % say somewhat effectively
18 % say not very effectively
3 % say not at all

How effectively can our current business leadership lead us into the 21st century?
38 % say very effectively
48 % say somewhat effectively
12.5 % say not very effectively
1 % say not at all

by Archana Subramaniam by CNB