Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: THURSDAY, April 22, 1993 TAG: 9304220151
SECTION: CURRENT PAGE: NRV6 EDITION: NEW RIVER VALLEY
SOURCE: ROBERT FREIS STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: CHRISTIANSBURG LENGTH: Medium
That is the conclusion of a study released this week by Glen Earthman, a Virginia Tech professor hired by the county school system to project future enrollments.
Forecasting changes in the number of pupils allows the school system to plan for future needs, such as new or renovated schools and staffing levels.
This latest study is the third Earthman has conducted for county schools in four years. Both of his earlier studies were quite accurate and influenced decisions to build new schools, such as Falling Branch Elementary School in Christiansburg and the planned new elementary school in Blacksburg, school Superintendent Harold Dodge said.
The new Blacksburg school, and redrawn attendance boundaries, effectively will absorb growth in that community over the next decade, Earthman told the School Board.
Yet growth in the western part of the county may force expansion of existing elementary schools in Riner and Bethel before 2002, he said.
Recent residential development near Riner - heretofore an agricultural community - and a rise in the number of pupils there prompted the School Board last year to ask Earthman to update his projections.
Earthman told the board Tuesday that Riner probably will continue to grow.
"It's a desirable place to live. There's plenty of space for future growth," he said.
He also predicted that growth will prompt an expansion of school facilities at Shawsville and Elliston over the next decade.
Overall, Earthman projects an 8 percent increase in the number of pupils countywide by 2002. That would represent an increase of 1,366 students, from 8,613 in September 1992 to 9,979 in 2002.
His projections are drawn from a variety of demographic sources, including census data, building permits, housing starts and other statistics.
According to census data, live births in Montgomery County increased 10 percent in 1990 over 1989 and 36 percent over 1980. More births means more pupils, with elementary schools experiencing the first wave of increases.
Lower numbers of births and declines in school enrollment represented a general downturn in the local economy during the 1980s, Earthman's report says.
However, a growth in school population may signal that the economy has bottomed out and is showing signs of recovery.
School growth, he noted, is "associated with economic opportunity and the general desirability of the community. . . ."
by CNB