Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: FRIDAY, May 7, 1993 TAG: 9305070118
SECTION: NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL PAGE: A-1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: RUTH SINAI ASSOCIATED PRESS
DATELINE: WASHINGTON LENGTH: Medium
For a new president with no experience in foreign affairs, the stakes in this very public quandary are extraordinarily high.
His options are few, and none of them particularly clear-cut.
This is the dilemma: Clinton has decided to try to stop the fighting in the former Yugoslavia and end the atrocities against Bosnia's Muslims, and he has concluded that military intervention is the last best hope. But he cannot act alone - public and congressional support is shaky at best - and his efforts thus far to enlist Euro pean support for military action have essentially failed.
After a six-day trek across Europe, including talks with more than a dozen allied leaders, Secretary of State Warren Christopher had little support to report for Clinton's two military proposals: bombing Serb artillery or arming the Muslims.
Clinton said Thursday he would ask Christopher to redouble his efforts, apparently hoping the rejection of the peace plan by the so-called Bosnian Serb parliament might increase allied support for military measures.
Clinton is untried at building the type of international coalition forged by President Bush to reverse the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. He doesn't have the personal rapport born of long acquaintance with world leaders Bush enjoyed.
In addition, the situation in Bosnia is far more complex than the good guys vs. bad guys of the Persian Gulf war, or even Somalia, where Bush dispatched U.S. troops to relieve hunger.
Clinton might win foreign support if he makes clear that his immediate goal is simply to stop Serb shelling of Muslim towns through a handful of carefully selected bombing raids of artillery emplacements. Such action, argue some analysts, might scare the Serbs into accepting the peace plan.
Clinton could also push for only one of his two options - a lifting of the U.N. arms embargo to allow the Muslims to arm themselves and gain parity with the Serbs. So far, the European allies have expressed reluctance but the U.S. Congress has been more supportive of such a course.
It is important for Clinton to project to the allies that he intends to go forward with some sort of action, said John Steinbrunner, a foreign policy analyst at the Brookings Institution.
"He's got to suggest that he might move without them, and that they better get on the train before it pulls out," Steinbrunner said.
Here at home, it remains unclear how much support Clinton has for a military mission.
There has been little public debate about U.S. intervention in Bosnia. As for congressional support, the mood was summed up thus by Rep. Lee Hamilton, D-Ind., chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee:
"There really is very great confusion, I think, within the Congress as to what the American national interests are and what we ought to do."
Small consolation for Clinton. At least he is not alone.
by CNB