Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: WEDNESDAY, May 19, 1993 TAG: 9305190607
SECTION: EDITORIAL PAGE: A-7 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: CAL THOMAS
DATELINE: LENGTH: Medium
Valenti, a top aide to President Lyndon Johnson, flew with the 12th Air Force tactical bomber squadron over Yugoslavia during World War II. "The world has changed, but the terrain hasn't," he tells me. "It remains surly, mean and unwholesome."
Much like some of the people on the ground.
Valenti worries that his friends in the new Democratic Administration run the risk of repeating the mistakes of the Kennedy-Johnson years which led to a deepening commitment to South Vietnam and a quicksand war that divided America, ruined Johnson's domestic agenda and scuttled his presidency.
"Some Administration officials are saying we can't let aggression go on because it will spill over into other parts of Europe," says Valenti. "We heard that a lot 30 years ago. . . . . David Brinkley asked President Kennedy in September, 1963, whether he believed in the `domino theory.' Kennedy said, `Yes.' "
Valenti notes that, like Vietnam, the terrain in Bosnia-Herzegovina is inhospitable and it would not be easy for our planes to successfully bomb and neutralize Serbian artillery positions. "We had trouble finding SCUD missiles in Iraq," he says. "How do you find targets in the mountains?"
The problem with comparing conflicts is that analogies can quickly break down. Bosnia, of course, is not like Vietnam or the Middle East, and it's difficult to understand what is going on or what to do about it without reading a history of the region.
One of the best and most useful recent books written on the area is "Serbs and Croats: The Struggle for Yugoslavia" by Alex N. Dragnich, former public affairs officer in the American Embassy in Belgrade.
Dragnich notes that religious and ethnic conflicts in the Balkans have existed since the 14th Century. More recently, "The competing interests of five empires - Ottoman, Russian, Austro-Hungarian, British and French - served to prevent or hold back the peoples of the Balkans in their attempt to realize their national ambitions."
Dragnich faults the European Community and the United States for creating the current situation. Following the loosening of communism's grip in Europe, Yugoslavia began to break up into ancient patterns. Dragnich writes, "Yugoslavia's demise was hastened by `friends' who offered their good offices, ostensibly to promote a peaceful solution, but, pressured by Germany and Austria to recognize Slovenia and Croatia without delay, they did not wait for the outcome of the negotiations."
The United States played its part in that destruction by joining the EC countries in recognizing Slovenia and Croatia, in April, 1992, and moved ahead of the EC in extending diplomatic recognition to Bosnia-Herzegovina.
"To the Serbs of Montenegro and Serbia," writes Dragnich, "this was the final irony. After all of their human and material sacrifices in the Balkan wars as well as in two world wars as allies of the West, they were being told by the European Community and the United States that they should be satisfied to leave nearly three million once-liberated compatriots to the whims of other masters." Dragnich says hasty recognition of Bosnia-Herzegovina by the United States and EC led to the current bloodshed.
This situation will not be easily resolved - and it could be made worse by American bombing. Ho Chi Minh would have advised against it. Jack Valenti does.
Cal Thomas is a syndicated columnist.
Los Angeles Times Syndicate
by CNB