Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: THURSDAY, May 27, 1993 TAG: 9308230289
SECTION: EDITORIAL PAGE: A11 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: Ray L. Garland
DATELINE: LENGTH: Long
The conventional wisdom has held that former U.S. Rep. George Allen of Albemarle will win the GOP nod for governor when 12,000 or so Republican delegates convene in Richmond June 4-5, and then go on to lose the general election to former Attorney General Mary Sue Terry, who long ago locked up the Democratic nomination.
But Fairfax businessman Earle Williams and Del. Clinton Miller of Shenandoah are charging hard, and the Republican convention could yield a surprise. There is a ripple of nervousness among the faithful that Allen may not yet be up to the task of reversing the Democratic tide that has flowed since 1981.
If George Bush had won re-election, it's hard to imagine that the dreams of Virginia Republicans to partake once more of delectable sweetmeats and first lady's punch in that lovely old house in Capitol Square would stand much chance of realization. After all, Terry carried every congressional district in her two previous races for statewide office and did nothing as attorney general to ruffle very many feathers.
Terry also has managed to pacify liberals on most issues they care about while appealing to conservatives on matters they hold dear. In sum, she presents herself as the logical heir of a succession of Virginia Democrats in whom voters have reposed confidence: liberal but not too liberal; conservative but not too conservative.
But there's hope, and it comes from a place called Hope. It lies in the rapid disintegration of the Arkansas Ambler, William J. Clinton. If the president keeps going the way he has been, and it's hard to see what he will change, anybody with a D after his or her name may encounter unexpected sales resistance.
There are several ways to win an election, the easiest being to count upon the mistakes of your opponents. But even if that's what finally puts you over the top, it's wise to have a bona fide rationale that will attract wavering voters.
The rationale for Terry is obvious. As a former state legislator and two-term attorney general, she is seasoned and will keep the commonwealth on an even keel. What you see is what you'll get; it may not be great but there will be no surprises.
At 41, George Allen would be a relatively young candidate for governor. But he has four terms in the House of Delegates under his belt and he won a tricky special election for the House of Representatives in 1991. His congressional career was terminated after little more than a year by reapportionment.
But Allen made an insufficient mark either in Richmond or Washington for that service by itself to provide a compelling case for his elevation to the governorship. He's an effective and energetic politician, but there's a danger that, if nominated, his campaign will come down to the message that undergirded past, failed GOP campaigns for governor: "Elect me because I am the real conservative in this race."
If that were a particularly successful formula, Don Beyer wouldn't be lieutenant governor now; nor would Democrats hold eight out of 13 places in Virginia's congressional delegation, vs. one out of 12 in 1981.
Clinton may change the equation, just as Henry Howell and Jimmy Carter queered the pitch for Virginia Democrats in the 1970s, but it's not wise to have only one arrow in your quiver.
Normally, a businessman coming to elective politics relatively late in life presents a pathetic spectacle of ineptitude. But these aren't normal times and Earle Williams has proved himself an exception to the rule. He has run a smooth and professional campaign for the nomination, fueled by generous helpings from his personal fortune, marred only by a few low blows against Allen.
Once chosen, all the candidates will take up various issues and there will be a remarkable sameness in what they have to say. They will all come out foursquare in favor of improving education, transportation, law enforcement, the environment and jobs - without raising taxes. Few independent voters will pay much attention to such vaporings, but look, instead, for signs of competent leadership.
In reality, there's only one issue that matters right now, and that's who can best manage Virginia's largest and most complex enterprise, which is what state government assuredly is.
State spending has increased by 150 percent since John Dalton left the governor's chair 12 years ago. Yet, state Sen. Hunter Andrews, D-Hampton, chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, said recently that his staff had concluded that the budget for 1994-96 will start $786 million in the red. And that assumes no new initiatives; no salary increases for state employees and teachers; no major construction projects, and no new federal mandates.
While a quickening pace of economic recovery could improve these numbers, the data suggests a crying need for a top manager and fiscal expert. Williams is the only candidate offering in either party who can lay legitimate claim to having borne personal responsibility over an extended period for the destiny of a large, complex enterprise.
In the fractured, unhappy, volatile, Perot-infested politics of today, there's a simple message in Williams' record of personal achievement and in his promise to do this one job and not run for anything else that could be crafted into a winning effort.
The third man in the GOP contest, Del. Clint Miller of Shenandoah, sees his only hope in a deadlock between Allen and Williams. If that miracle occurs, and Miller chooses to be his country lawyer/singer/populist self, Virginians will be treated to one of the most unusual and personally appealing candidates they've ever seen.
\ Ray L. Garland is a Roanoke Times & World-News columnist.
Keywords:
POLITICS
by CNB