Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: WEDNESDAY, June 2, 1993                   TAG: 9306020086
SECTION: NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL                    PAGE: A3   EDITION: STATE 
SOURCE: Associated Press
DATELINE: WASHINGTON                                LENGTH: Medium

MANY UNINSURED DON'T STAY THAT WAY LONG

Yet despite the horror stories about uninsured people who can't afford needed medical treatment, a Harvard professor's research shows that for most people, the lack of coverage is a temporary handicap.

Using a government database, health policy Professor Katherine Swartz found that 48 percent of those who lose health coverage regain it in five months or less. Another 16 percent regain health insurance within nine months. Nineteen percent remain without coverage for more than two years.

Her findings will affect the impending congressional debate over President Clinton's health reform plan in two ways:

They show that low-cost, short-term provisions that will be included in Clinton's proposal should significantly reduce the number of uninsured.

They provide ammunition to conservatives who argue that the health insurance crisis is overblown, and massive government intervention is not the answer.

Swartz's work, which followed people over 32 months, is like a video: It shows how things change. The Census Bureau figure of 37 million uninsured is like a snapshot: it looks at a given moment.

The two studies represent different ways of measuring the same reality. The results can't be directly compared because the studies rely on separate databases.

Swartz's research already has created ripples. Republicans and conservative Democrats, who believe that Clinton's approach involves too much government interference, point to her studies as evidence that simpler remedies would do.

"We look at [Swartz's] figures, and what they show is that the problem isn't nearly as bad as that 37 million number makes it out to be," said Merrill Matthews, health policy director for the National Center for Policy Analysis, a Dallas-based conservative think tank.

The chronically uninsured are "only a relatively small number of people," added Matthews.

Swartz supports a government-run health system like Canada's - the opposite of what conservatives want.

"My reaction is: This is a serious problem," says Swartz. "I'm not saying, `Gee, they're only uninsured for six months - there's no problem."'

Nevertheless, Swartz's research demonstrates that most people are able to resolve the nerve-wracking problem of losing health coverage.