Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: SUNDAY, June 20, 1993 TAG: 9306280262
SECTION: EDITORIAL PAGE: D3 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: LARRY J. SABATO
DATELINE: LENGTH: Long
Every election year is different, of course, and the precise elements of success or failure, and their relative importance, change with the candidates and circumstances.
But Virginia's modern history can provide some clues to the likely outcome of the current contest by helping us focus on the more durable, stable factors of campaigns - the elements that separated winners from losers on previous Election Days. Ten such factors are presented in the accompanying table, and they may comprise the keys to the governor's mansion in 1993:
The Economy. Overall, do voters believe they are economically better off or worse off than they were four years ago? Do economic conditions in the state appear to be improving or deteriorating during the election year? Generally, the incumbent party - the one holding the governorship at the time of the election - will be rewarded for good times and punished for bad times, just as at the national level.
Party unity. How harmonious is each state party? Was there a challenge for the gubernatorial nomination, and if so, how divisive was the contest? Did competition for the lieutenant governor and attorney general nominations (if any) hurt party unity?
Scandal. Has there been a major scandal involving leading figures in a party over the previous year or two? Scandal can have an impact whether those figures are national or state officeholders, although the greater effect is usually recorded when they are state officials.
Campaign organization and technology. The better organized candidate with the more technologically advanced campaign can add several percentage points to his or her vote total on election day.
Campaign money. Those technologies and everything else in a modern campaign are very expensive. Without a large warchest, victory is difficult to achieve.
Candidate personality and appeal. Most voters pick a personality as well as a party label. Some candidates have charm and are tailor-made for television; others are less charismatic.
Prior office experience. By and large, Virginia voters pay attention to a candidate's preparation for the highest executive office. They usually choose the more experienced politician.
Retrospective judgment on the previous governor. If the voters are pleased with the incumbent governor's performance in office, they are more likely to elect his party's nominee; if they are displeased, they are more inclined to turn to the opposition party.
Presidential popularity. While state elections rarely are a clear-cut referendum on a sitting president, his popularity - or lack of it - can affect his party's nominee.
Special issues and dominant circumstances. Most election years are dominated by a big issue or two, and unforeseen circumstances can steer a contest in an unexpected direction. This `X' factor is the most difficult to project, even a few months or weeks before Election Day.
As the accompanying table shows, these 10 keys have been categorized as favoring the Democrats, Republicans, or neither party in each of the six election years comprising Virginia's modern era of two-party competition (1969 to the present).
In the gubernatorial elections held over this period, Republicans have won three times (1969, 1973, and 1977) and Democrats three times (1981, 1985, and 1989). The keys proved to be remarkably predictive, and in every case the party with the most keys in its favor captured the governorship.
Moreover, on the two occasions when a party's net advantage among the keys was especially large (1977 and 1985), that party's candidate scored a landslide victory exceeding 55 percent.
Analyzing history is enormously easier than peering into the political future, but what do the keys say about the 1993 contest?
First, they confirm the Democratic lead at the starting gate. The state economy appears to be picking up, benefiting the incumbent party. Despite the serious Robb-Wilder split, Democrats are firmly united behind the Terry-Beyer-Dolan ticket, while Republican moderates were shut out and their arguments booed at the state party convention.
Terry already has an ample campaign treasury that likely will remain larger than her GOP opponent's through the autumn; this will buy her the best media and campaign services available, as well as a tested, professional staff. And with two terms as a statewide elected officeholder under her belt, Terry is much better known and politically experienced than Allen, a former state legislator and congressman.
Still, the Republicans have significant advantages that can keep them competitive. The economy is shaky and the past four years have been fiscally difficult - conditions that create openings for Allen. President Clinton's manifest unpopularity in Virginia may grow and deepen by November, presenting potential pitfalls for a Democrat who has warmly embraced the Clinton-Gore administration. (Jimmy Carter's declining political health in the fall of 1977 was a definite drag on Henry Howell's gubernatorial campaign, although Howell had many additional problems.)
Chuck Robb and Doug Wilder are other Terry allies whose support is double-edged. In political terms, Terry has long been viewed as close to the scandal-plagued Robb, though that may be more image than reality. Republicans will undoubtedly attempt to link her to Robb's foibles, but whether these efforts will bear fruit is an open question.
Similarly, Terry will be held accountable for her immediate Democratic predecessor's actions. By many measures Douglas Wilder's governorship has been a success. Hailed for his sound financial management of the state and refusal to raise taxes, the contentious Wilder nonetheless suffers from relatively low popularity ratings. Allen will try to transfer that unpopularity to Terry, but her own very public disagreements with the governor may provide her with some insulation.
Terry's gender will probably prove to be an advantage, attracting activist accolades, lavish free media attention, and financial backing from national women's groups. But it is at least possible there could be some hidden cost at the polls. Wilder discovered as much in 1989, and while gender is less likely to generate backlash than race, this scenario must be a private worry for the Terry campaign. After all, in the more than 70 years since women gained the franchise, only a dozen women have been elected to state governorships.
Special issues and circumstances will arise to change the election's calculus, and these eventualities may either be the Republicans' salvation or will solidify the Democrats' frontrunning position.
Similarly, the early judgment made here about some factors can be reversed, as unforeseen developments turn a key the other way. Will the economy take a dramatic jump up or down? Will scandal pop up in an unexpected place? Will Allen's or Terry's persona catch on with voters, turning a currently neutral key to the advantage of one party? Will the electorate's evaluation of Clinton improve, thereby lifting a burden from Terry's shoulders, or sink so low that voters will try to send the president a message be rejecting the Democratic ticket? Will the GOP raise more money than expected, neutralizing Terry's warchest?
By mid-October the shape of nearly all keys should be cast, and the reader can play prognosticator with more confidence.
But keep in mind this caveat: Politics is endlessly surprising, and every now and then a campaign triumphs by breaking all the old rules. Historical indicators are revealing, but only a hard campaign and the votes of hundreds of thousands of Virginians can finally determine whose hands will hold the keys to the governor's mansion come January.
\ AUTHOR Larry J. Sabato is a professor of government at the University of Virginia.
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POLITICS
by CNB