Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: THURSDAY, September 2, 1993 TAG: 9309020121
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: C-3 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: BY DALE EISMAN STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: RICHMOND LENGTH: Medium
Allen, now backed by 40 percent of state voters, trailed Terry by 6 percentage points in the survey by Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research Inc. Because the survey had a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points, the race can be considered a statistical dead heat.
Mason-Dixon polls in May and June gave Terry leads of 29 and 18 points, respectively.
In the new poll, Terry's lead came entirely from support among women voters, who preferred her by a 12-point margin, 49-37. The contest was a dead heat among men, with each candidate getting 43 percent.
Terry is seeking to become Virginia's first woman governor.
The survey indicated that Lt. Gov. Don Beyer, a Democrat, enjoys a healthy advantage, 41 percent to 28 percent, in his bid for re-election against Republican Mike Farris. But the contest for attorney general is essentially a tossup, with Democrat Bill Dolan preferred by 30 percent, to 27 percent for Republican Jim Gilmore.
The poll did not quiz voters on the reasons for their preferences or the strength of their commitments. Brad Coker, Mason-Dixon's president, linked the Terry-Allen results to the unpopularity in Virginia of President Clinton, Gov. Douglas Wilder and U.S. Sen. Charles Robb. Like Terry, all are Democrats.
The results suggest "a classic October race, not all that intrinsically exciting or interesting to most voters," said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist. Only Democratic and Republican partisans are strongly committed now, he said, and most other voters won't make up their minds until the campaign's final weeks.
Sabato said the poll could help convince national Republicans to send Allen more money. But after losing the presidency last year, the GOP is short of cash, he said.
Terry has assembled an in-state corporate contributor list that's "practically Virginia Inc.," Sabato said, so Allen also is finding it tough to raise big money at home. But "given the trends with Clinton's unpopularity, Terry's going to need every penny," he added.
After struggling all summer against perceptions that Terry would be impossible to catch, Republicans were delighted with the results. "As voters get to know . . . both George Allen and Mary Sue Terry, they overwhelmingly choose George Allen," said Jay Timmons, Allen's press secretary.
Timmons noted that Allen had been able to close the gap despite Terry's overwhelming edge in fund raising and her heavier early use of television advertising. Terry's $2 million-plus bankroll let her run commercials across the state throughout August; Allen has been off the air for almost two weeks.
Tom King, Terry's campaign consultant, professed to be unconcerned by the poll, calling it "consistent with every other race that's happened in Virginia before."
He recalled that at this point in the 1989 campaign, Republican Marshall Coleman enjoyed a 6-point lead over Wilder; and in 1985, Democrat Gerald Baliles led Republican Wyatt Durrette Jr. by the same margin. Coleman ended up losing to Wilder by less than 1 point; Baliles beat Durrette by 10 points.
"The race couldn't remain 18 points, you know that," King said.
The telephone poll of 809 registered voters was taken last Thursday through Saturday.
Keywords:
POLITICS
by CNB