Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: SUNDAY, September 5, 1993 TAG: 9309050332
SECTION: HORIZON PAGE: F4 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE:
DATELINE: LENGTH: Long
When U.S. Sen. Harry Byrd Sr., the great apple-farmer from Winchester, ruled Virginia like his private plantation, there wasn't a need for pundits because everyone knew what was going to happen - the Byrd Machine candidates were going to win, usually in landslides.
"During the Byrd era, it must have been easy," Larry Sabato muses. "There were only about four people you had to check in with at six-month intervals."
Then came civil rights, Republicans, and everything got, well, unpredictable. So what did we do? We started asking people to make predictions.
"In the 1970s, Virginia politics really changed and that lent itself to political commentary in a way you hadn't had before," Tom Morris says. "As politics changed, reporters began to look for more explanations as to what was going on."
Journalists discovered a young psephologist at the University of Virginia - that's someone who studies voting patterns - who could tell them. His name was Sabato.
For years, he was the only pundit in Virginia. Then, tired of quoting Sabato all the time, journalists turned to Morris and for many years there were just two. In recent years, though, punditry has been a veritable growth industry. Some universities, eager to see their names in print, have started hiring public relations firms to tout their profs as "expert" sources.
"What we're seeing," says Denton, "is a national increase in the use of pundits."
\ SPIN CYCLE
Used to be, prospective candidates in Virginia wouldn't think of running until they'd paid a call on U.S. Senator Harry Byrd to get his blessing.
Nowadays, you're not a serious candidate unless you've been by to visit the pundits.
"If you're quoted with enough frequency, the candidates and campaigns have to take you into account," Bob Denton says.
So they lobby the pundits - "spin" in the political parlance - to say good things about them.
It's a vicious cycle. "We help create these people," laments Susan Swecker, a Richmond lawyer and longtime Democratic campaign worker. "You [in the media] quote 'em once, so then we as campaign managers try to develop a relationship with them." And that, in turn, makes them even more valuable as sources.
The attention from politicians flatters some pundits, and unnerves others.
"My reaction initially was why are they calling me?" Rozell says. "I'm a little guy. I tell people I don't have any power. I don't like the idea of people thinking I have power. I didn't seek it. I don't want it."
Pundits claim they can't change the outcome of an election, but they can do something just as important. "If all of the analysts are saying, this candidate doesn't stand much of a chance, they say it affects their ability to raise money," Rozell says. "If we have any power, that's it."
\ DON'T MIND ME . . .
The best spin job? Maybe the way Mary Sue Terry spun Tom Morris back in the mid-1980s when he was still teaching at the University of Richmond, Terry's alma mater.
"I got a call from Mary Sue Terry before she ran for attorney general," Morris recalls. "She said `I notice you get quoted in the press sometime.' She said `reporters may be caling you about me. You shouldn't feel hesitant to speak your mind even though I'm on the Board of Trustees.' As a matter of fact, I didn't know she was on the Board of Trustees. That was her way of letting me know she she was watching me."
\ SO WHO'S NOT QUOTED?
You mean other than blacks and women?
Beneath the first-string of pundits is a second team of profs who tend to get quoted only for limited purposes. Foremost among them is Avon Drake, associate professor of political science at Virginia Commonwealth University. He's probably the most-quoted black pundit in Virginia, although he's usually quoted only when black politicians are involved.
Is there a double-standard? Jack Gravely, the former head of the state's NAACP thought so in 1989, when he blasted Virginia's press for only quoting white analysts. The catch is that what journalists really want is not scholarly insight, it's gossip - just as long as they can dress it up by attributing it to an academic.
So journalists tend to quote only those pundits who take the time to attend major political events to dredge up that gossip; that tends to narrow a wide field of academics to just a handful willing to tie up their nights and weekends going to debates and conventions.
On the other hand, some of the pundits started attending those events after they started getting quoted, so the question remains: Why are the only professors quoted white males? More specifically, how does Drake feel that he's only asked about black politics?
Drake says it bothers him, but not that much. He says part of the problem is white journalists don't know what to make of his unorthodox views. "I'm an academic radical, but a social conservative," he says. As a result, he says, even many blacks "don't feel comfortable with the media quoting me."
Drake agrees that the Virginia news media could do a better job of quoting black academics, but also says the greater onus is on the academics themselves. "We have to get our voice out. Sometimes I don't do that because I don't want it to seem self-serving." Nevertheless, he says, "it's good to let reporters know you exist." So lately he's taken to calling up reporters to volunteer his analysis - in hopes someday more will start calling him.
\ DO WE EVEN NEED PUNDITS?
Sure, says Jay Marlin, the press secretary for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mary Sue Terry. You need someone who can offer insight about what the candidates are saying - someone to, in effect, be a judge to say one candidate is as crazy as a loon. Otherwise, he says, one candidate's serious proposal would be given the same credibility as another candidate's frivolous one.
Put another way, Bob Holsworth says, journalists need someone to say the things they're all thinking - but can't say themselves.
The problem, says longtime Republican campaign operative Jeff Gregson of Richmond, is the only people regarded as experts seem to be those with Ph.D.s."These so-called experts have never worked in campaigns and don't really understand the dynamics of a campaign, particularly in the last 30 days," he says.
That's a bi-partisan complaint, by the way. Academic pundits are, well, too "intellectual" about politics, complains Democratic operative Susan Swecker of Richmond. If you really want to know what's going to sell with voters, she says, "you're better off going down to the local hang-out in town where the business people are having coffee, or the day-care center where parents are dropping off their kids. I'd put as much credibility in my dad, who every morning has a cup of coffee at what they call the Liar's Corner in High's Restaurant in downtown Monterey, as any ivory-tower pundit."
Say, is he available for "Nightline"?
\ THE HAZARDS OF THE TRADE
What's the worst part about being a pundit? Well, for starters, there are the late-night calls from cranks, paranoids and conspiracy theorists. But let's leave the reporters out of this.
Once a one-armed ex-mental patient paid a visit to Bob Holsworth, telling the prof he was entrusting his secret to him because he was a "straight-shooter."
"He kept using the phrase `straight-shooter' and had a little bag in front of him," Holsworth says. "I was getting kind of worried." Especially when the visitor insisted that Sen. Charles Robb was responsible for having him committed to a mental hospital until his brother coughed up "some sensitive political information."
"He claimed that Chuck Robb controlled the phone system in Virginia and if I wanted to know the truth, the mail system as well. Sometimes he sent me letters by registered mail. I guess that's the part Chuck Robb didn't control."
\ ALLEN VS. TERRY
How the pundits call this year's governor's race
"I see Mary Sue Terry as the favorite with George Allen carrying the burden to change the dynamics in the campaign enough to make him competitive. Mary Sue Terry has positioned herself well for the fall campaign and deserves the title of front-runner. She appeals to elements all across the spectrum, from conservative businessmen to liberal Democrats. She's put distance between herself and Doug Wilder and she's distanced herself from President Clinton. George Allen must come up with an issue to change the dynamics. It remains to be seen what that issue will be."
- Tom Morris
"It's a classic October race. It's going to be decided in October. Nobody may care until then. There's no interest. I was with 900 lawyers the other day and I don't think three really talked about it. There's no inspiration, no drama, nobody feels anything. I think it'll be a quickly-unfolding race, and then either of two things will happen. If she has that huge money advantage, she could blow him to smithereens. However, if Clinton's popularity is low, and there are more Robb-Wilder antics, it's possible he could harness that millstone around her neck and she could quickly sink."
- Larry Sabato
"I think the biggest story that has come out recently is the the inability of George Allen to tap into big-dollar Republican sources. That started with [Northern Virginia developer and longtime GOP fund-raiser] Til Hazel's call to the Fairfax Journal. It seems he felt comfortable with Mary Sue Terry and a lot of developers up here in Northern Virginia are either broke or sitting this one out. Mary Sue is on the tube defining herself already, and that's very bad news for Allen's campaign."
- Mark Rozell
"My guess is Mary Sue is slightly ahead but there's an opportunity for Allen to run an extremely competitive campaign here."
- Bob Holsworth
"I think the election will be closer than people think. The real issue for George Allen is money. Can he have enough media for the last month? Also, the impact of [running mate] Michael Farris is a little bit unknown at this point. But I'm confident we'll see a race. We're seeing a three-year pattern - people say it's volatile, but it's more that voters are listening to reason and then changing their minds. They want detailed proposals. They really are attuned to the election."
- Bob Denton.
\ "Ninety percent of what's happening doesn't appear in the news. Either because of space, or because it's off the record or reporters can't get at it."
- Larry Sabato
"I know many academic colleagues who refuse to play this role. To be perfectly candid, I know some who will question the professional values of our academic colleagues who talk to the news media."
- Mark Rozell
"Most of what we do, if we're candid, is share conventional political thinking. So if a candidate comes along who defines conventional thinking, that candidate is likely to fool us."
- Tom Morris
"You can be brilliant and idiotic at the same time."
- Bob Holsworth
"When I get quoted in The New York Times, I get a note from [university president James] McComas saying `attaboy.' When I get quoted in the Roanoke Times, I don't get anything."
- Bob Denton
THE STANDINGS
Who's quoted how often*
\ See microfilm for chart
Keywords:
POLITICS
by CNB