Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: SUNDAY, September 5, 1993 TAG: 9309050333
SECTION: HORIZON PAGE: F1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: DWAYNE YANCEY STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: LENGTH: Long
Criticizing. Complaining. Bad-mouthing some of Virginia's most cherished traditions.
The candidates?
Of course not, silly. The pundits.
For better or worse, there are five Virginians whose opinions on politics get more attention than anyone else's.
Sabato, Morris, Holsworth, Rozell & Denton. They're not some tony Main Street Richmond law firm, although the entrance requirements into this fraternity - and mind you, it's a fraternity, and an all-white one, at that - are just as stiff.
They're not even some fast-lane Northern Virginia development outfit, although they engage in just as much speculation, often with the same embarrassing results.
They're a bunch of college professors, for goodness sake.
Between now and Election Day, these five profs-turned-pundits will be telling us what to think about the candidates for governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general.
Who's up. Who's down. Who's in. Who's out.
Why, there must be a rule somewhere: A political story's not a political story unless one of them is quoted.
Which raises the question: Just who are these guys?\ TOM MORRIS
Ivory tower: Emory & Henry College.
Day job: College president.
Age: 49
Hometown: Galax.
Political slant: Grew up an admirer of Linwood Holton and other moderate "mountain-valley" Republicans. Today? "I'm an independent. I have enjoyed dealing with politics at arm's length as a political commentator."
Odd fact #1: Once taught a course on the separation of powers while juggling. "If I drop one, I just tell them that was the Richard Nixon presidency - where the balance went awry," he says.
Academic credentials: Author of four books.
How became a pundit: In the early '80s, when Larry Sabato was the only pundit in the land, journalists seeking an alternative quotesmith found Morris - then teaching at the University of Richmond - a reliable source, with academic expertise in state government, no less. "I always said if reporters couldn't get through to Larry, they could get through to me."
Odd fact #2: When he lived in Richmond, one of his neighbors was Doug Wilder.
Reputation: Second only to Larry Sabato in years of service. But ever since Morris moved to Emory & Henry in 1992, he's found his opportunities for punditry have decreased. It's a case of out of Richmond, out of mind: Journalists based in the state capital no longer call Morris as often as they once did.
Strengths: The epitome of the dispassionate academic - cool, calm and collected. Knows the history of Virginia politics as good as anyone.
Weaknesses: Not much for snappy quotes. "I have been described as somewhat cautious," Morris says. "My wife even complains, when it's just the two of us, I still give answers that are too cautious."
\ LARRY SABATO
Ivory tower: The University. If you have to ask which one, you probably should skip straight to the comic section.
Day job: Robert Kent Gooch professor of government and foreign affairs.
Age: 41.
Hometown: Norfolk.
Political slant: Grew up a liberal Democrat and worked on Henry Howell's 1977 gubernatorial campaign. Sabato's job? To write the transition blueprint for the new administration if Howell won. He didn't. Nowadays, Sabato says his political views have moderated. "If I were a politician, that would be a flip-flop, but since I'm an academic it's intellectual growth," he says.
Odd fact #1: He's a vegetarian.
Odd fact #2: First Virginia pundit that had a sitting governor attack him. In 1984, Charles Robb blistered Sabato as "Dr. Dial-A-Quote." The impact? Sabato's reputation soared. Robb's? You be the judge.
Academic credentials: Authors "Virginia Votes," an annual dissection of Virginia voting trends that stands as the Bible of Virginia election returns. Author of 17 books, including the much-quoted "Feeding Frenzy."
Odd fact #3: Only pundit who calls his own news conferences. Sabato's annual December presentation of the latest "Virginia Votes" analysis of the most recent elections draws a packed house at the state Capitol.
Odd fact #4: Passes out stickers that read: "Politics Is a Good Thing."Engages in running battle with grammarians over whether it's "Politics Is" or "Politics Are."
Best call: Won't say. "The smarter you are, the less you do it." Make predictions, that is.
Worst call: If horse-racing comes to Virginia, don't let Sabato place your bets at the track. He once dismissed Doug Wilder's campaign for lieutenant governor as a 100 to 1 shot.
How became a pundit: His mentor at UVa was the first author of "Virginia Votes." When that professor died, Sabato took over the duties of analyzing the state's elections returns. This just happened to be about the same time that Virginia journalists started seeking out experts to explain why elections were turning out the way they were. They found Sabato - and haven't lost him since.
Reputation: Virginia's top quotesmith, by far. He's not just a Virginia analyst anymore, either. With well-timed books on political action committees, the rise of political consultants and "attack journalism," Sabato has gone national. When Gennifer "with a `G' " Flowers, on the eve of the New Hampshire primary, claimed she'd had a torrid affair with Bill Clinton, it was Sabato who "Nightline" turned to for crisis commentary. Now said to be the most-quoted university-based political pundit in the country. The other pundits quoted nationally tend to be at D.C. think tanks.
Strengths: Knows everything worth knowing about Virginia politics. His office functions as the state's political rumor-control center for journalists and campaign operatives alike. You've heard of speaking in tongues? Sabato speaks in quotes, usually, sharp, pungent ones at that. As fellow pundit Bob Denton says: "His quotes are the sizzle. The rest of us have to give the steak."
Weaknesses: Sometimes he's too glib for his own good. And too visible: He's quoted so much, some news organizations have been known to impose temporary moratoriums on quoting the Sage of Charlottesville.
But Sabato's biggest problem is Charles Robb: Sabato's book "Feeding Frenzy" quoted a witness who alleged that coke-heads were snorting drugs in front of Robb at one of those notorious Virginia Beach parties. That sent the Robb story spiraling into a national orbit, and made Sabato one of the key actors in the unfolding political drama. Is Sabato now too close to the what-did-Chuck-do stories to be an objective analyst during the 1994 Senate race?
\ BOB HOLSWORTH
Ivory tower: Virginia Commonwealth University.
Day job: Head of the political science department; co-director of VCU's new Virginia Center on Urban Development, an inner-city think tank.
Age: 42.
Hometown: New Yawk City.
Political slant: "My own views have changed rather dramatically in the last four to five years. At one time I was left of center. Now I think the left is useless a lot of the time and has gone down a path I think is just absurd, such as political correctness. Now I'm very eclectic. I couldn't tell you today who I'm going to vote for." His last political involvement came in 1984, when he was a delegate to the state Democratic convention. For who? He can't remember. "Probably Mondale."
Odd fact: "I'm a pasta addict. I probably eat spaghetti three or four times a week."
Best call: Even when the polls pointed to a Doug Wilder landslide in 1989, Holsworth predicted Wilder would barely eke out a victory. Also, when the polls were showing Ross Perot in single-digits, Holsworth insisted he'd get about 20 percent of the vote nationwide.
Worst call: On election night 1989, predicted Eddy Dalton would win the lieutenant governorship. "Don Beyer has never forgiven me for that."
How became a pundit: In 1985, started writing a column on Virginia politics for Richmond's yuppie tip sheet, "Style Weekly."
Reputation: Now that Tom Morris has moved to the great Southwest, Holsworth, the only pundit left in the state capital, has emerged as Virginia's No. 2 pundit.
Academic credentials: Author of three books, and co-author of a fourth with Avon Drake, the latter a celebrated study of Richmond's efforts to promote minority-owned businesses through contract set-asides.
Strengths: Stands as the curious nexus of politics, policy and the press. Holsworth's academic work already had made him something of an expert on Richmond's racial politics. As head of VCU's new urban center, Holsworth is now involved in formulating ways to help reverse the decline of inner cities. He also co-teaches a class with Don Baker, chief of The Washington Post's Richmond bureau. Politicians can't afford to turn down an invitation to speak to their class. "Actually, it's Baker they're afraid of," he says. Either way, Holsworth is in the thick of things. He knows what's going on.
Weaknesses: Nobody gives quotes as snappy as Sabato.
\ MARK ROZELL
Ivory tower: Mary Washington College.
Day job: Associate professor of political science.
Hometown: Somewhere in northern New Jersey.
Age: 33. The baby.
Odd fact #1: Journalists may have his number in their Rolodexes, but not his name. He estimates 10 percent of the time his they misspell it. There's no "e" on the end.
Best call: Pegged Don Beyer as a comer early on, when the conventional wisdom had the Northern Virginia car dealer down as a lightweight who couldn't win his party's nomination for lieutenant governor. "What I experienced from the Don Beyer campaign, the stroking, everything conflicted with this image of an amateur politician in over his head."
Worst call: When Republican Marshall Coleman vented his wrath on the state's news media toward the end of the 1989 gubernatorial campaign, Rozell sided with the reporters. "I took it as an expression of frustration by a man who was about to lose and was blaming the news media for his failure." But after the election, Rozell made a formal study of the coverage of the 1989 race, and concluded that the news media really did give short shrift to Coleman. The lesson he learned: "Instant analysis is an oxymoron."
Political slant: Grew up a Republican, and interned with the Republican National Committee and a GOP congressman. "Ever since I went to grad school, I've been strictly nonpartisan. I think as a scholar, we have to maintain neutrality."
Academic credentials: Author of two books on the relationship between the press and the presidency, with two more books on the way.
Odd fact #2: Once turned down a chance to appear on "MacNeill-Lehrer NewsHour" to talk about Chuck Robb. Instead, he went to the beach.
How became a pundit: "From my perspective, it's been an accident." He says journalists looking to broaden their list of sources called him out of the blue. After that, he started doing the things that made sure reporters called him back - like showing up at state conventions and trolling press row with the other pundits.
Reputation: Has quickly established himself as a statewide pundit. Not bad for a guy from a college without a football team.
Strengths: Even if Rozell did blow it with Coleman in '89, his studies on how the relationship between the press and politicians on the state level make him a natural arbiter whenever one side claims it's the victim of unfair news coverage. He's also the resident Northern Virginia expert. Although he teaches in Fredericksburg, Rozell lives in Fairfax County. That gives him unique insight into those mercurial Northern Virginia voters who now account for more than one-fourth of the state's electorate.
Weaknesses: Call him the Ambivalent Analyst. (See Odd Fact #1, above). Rozell has lingering doubts about whether punditry is a good thing. (Maybe he needs one of Sabato's stickers).
\ BOB DENTON
Ivory tower: Virginia Tech.
Day job: Head of the communications department. The only nonpolitical scientist in the bunch.
Age: 40.
Hometown: Boone, N.C. Calls himself a "billy." That's short for "hillbilly."
Political slant: Grew up a Southern Democrat, "with all that that entails about military service and fiscal conservatism." Volunteer for Jimmy Carter in 1976. In the 1980s, owned an ad agency in Illinois that worked for both Democratic and Republican candidates. Nowadays, "I split my ticket routinely," Denton says. "I do know at least Republicans pay their bills and Democrats tend not to."
Only involvement in politics since moving to Virginia came in 1992, when he gave free advice to 9th District Republican congressional hopeful George Bell. But that was personal, not political, Denton says. Bell was an old college buddy from Wake Forest. "If he had gotten the nomination, I'd have been confronted with a dilemma, do I work for George and not comment?"
Best call: Predicted Don Beyer would upset Eddy Dalton for lieutenant governor in 1989 ("I was relatively new to Virginia, but I could just feel that one") and predicted Brandon Bell would upset Roanoke state Sen. Granger Macfarlane in 1991.
Worst call: Predicted Clinton Miller might emerge as the king-maker at this year's Republican convention. Miller finished with only 3 percent of the vote.
Odd fact #1: Jimmy Carter gave him a gold peanut pin for his help during the 1976 North Carolina primary.
Odd fact #2: Former U.S. Army captain. When the Pentagon discovered it had a Ph.D. in communication languishing at some swampy base in Georgia, it re-assigned Denton to help devise the Army's "be-all-you-can-be"recruitment campaign.
Academic credentials: Author of nine books about the media and politics with a 10th on the way.
How became a pundit: Was a pundit in Rockford, Ill., before he moved to Virginia in 1988. That's when his book "The Prime-Time Presidency of Ronald Reagan" came out and Tech shamelessly promoted Denton as an election-year expert. Before long, speaking engagements to Rotarians turned into sound-bites on Roanoke television.
Reputation: The odd-man-out in what amounts to a statewide "Gang of Four"when it comes to political punditry. For now, a regional pundit struggling to establish a statewide rep. A big name in Western Virginia, where he's the in-house analyst for WSLS-TV (Channel 10) and hosts an interview program on public station WBRA-TV. Richmond-based reporters tend to quote Denton mostly when they need an expert on Western Virginia, which isn't very often.
The irony: Virginia Tech pays a New Hampshire P.R. firm to promote all its academic experts to the media, so Denton gets quoted more out of state - including recent mentions in The New York Times - than he does in state.
Strengths: Because of his advertising background and academic work, Denton is at his best when dissecting candidates' television strategies.
Weaknesses: Because he's a newcomer on the wrong side of the state, doesn't have the day-to-day insight into the inner workings of the statewide campaigns that other pundits do. But that's changing.
Keywords:
POLITICS PROFILE
by CNB