Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: SUNDAY, September 26, 1993 TAG: 9309260100
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: B-1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: DWAYNE YANCEY STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: LENGTH: Long
It's the Republican who is proposing one new program after another, while it's the Democrat who is warning there's not enough money to pay for them all.
Ever since Labor Day, when the first of a series of polls showed the race had become a dead heat, Democrat Mary Sue Terry has repeatedly charged that Republican George Allen's math doesn't add up:
"He's promised retirees half a billion dollars [as a settlement in lawsuit over state taxation of federal pensions], he's promised to spend billions on prisons, he'll return $20 million out of the lottery to localities, he's promised more pay and benefits to the [Fraternal Order of Police], he's made a Shermanesque statement that he won't raise taxes, and he said last week he was not going to cut one dime from the higher education budget," Terry said during a recent stop in Roanoke. By contrast, "I've been careful not to overreach."
At the same time, Allen seems equally determined to shower his campaign audiences with examples of what he calls the "innovations" that he, as the first Republican in the governor's mansion in 12 years, would introduce.
Allen's recent talk to an economic development conference in Roanoke is typical. In the space of 20 minutes, Allen proposed three new offices to promote job growth in Virginia - trade offices in Eastern Europe and Latin America plus a welcome center for business leaders passing through Washington's Dulles International Airport - and at least five new tax breaks to stimulate specific industries.
To pay for these new offices, Allen simply says he would "re-allocate" existing expenditures.
What gives?
"What gives," says University of Virginia political analyst Larry Sabato, "is that Mary Sue Terry is the establishment this year. She represents the status quo. George Allen has to break her party's grip on power, and to do that he has to propose new things."
For the record, Terry's staff totes up $7 billion worth of new spending that Allen has proposed.
And for the record, Allen insists that the other side's math is wrong, that Terry is ignoring all the ways he has proposed to cut spending - from turning prisons over to private control to cutting out the $30 million the state spent last year to send its employees to conventions.
Truth is, neither candidate is terribly specific on spending, especially considering that the state faces a projected $500 million shortfall in revenues. "They're both disingenuous," says Virginia Tech political analyst Bob Denton. "They're both dancing around this incredible bonfire."
Candidates avoiding a line-by-line discussion of budget priorities - that's nothing new. What is new is the Democrat's attempt to paint the Republican as a big spender.
That's partly a function of the two personalities involved. Terry has always been the cautious type who weighs every word; Allen, more gregarious and free-wheeling, is willing to mull over ideas in public. "I come up with ideas in my sleep," he brags.
It's also a function of the roles the two candidates occupy in this race. Allen is the outsider; Terry, seeking to become the fourth Democratic governor in a row, is the quasi-incumbent.
That makes it easy for Allen and hard for Terry to propose new programs, says Paul Goldman, the Democrats' former state party chairman.
"The Republicans haven't been in charge, so they can say whatever they want," Goldman says, "When you're the party in power, by definition you feel the responsibility."
But the political analysts say there's something else driving Allen's flurry of initiatives and Terry's criticism that his ideas cost too much:
The 1993 governor's race is mirroring the 1992 presidential campaign, with one key difference.
"George Allen is the Bill Clinton of 1993," Sabato says.
Voters in 1992 were hungry not only for change, but also for specifics, Denton says, and policy wonk Clinton spewed them out at every opportunity. That specificity conveyed not only change, but seriousness.
Allen - initially dismissed even by many of his party's own financiers as an intellectual lightweight - is now doing to Terry just what Clinton did to Bush, the analysts say.
He's making himself look like the candidate with the most new ideas.
"George Allen has been successful, at least from a brainstorming perspective," Denton says. "I'm impressed by the number - and, yes, the detail - that has come from him. I don't ever recall seeing such detailed programs in a gubernatorial campaign."
To a certain extent, Denton says, it doesn't matter whether Allen's budget arithmetic adds up or not.
"If you ask someone to name Allen's six points on workfare, no one can repeat them, it's minutiae," Denton says. "Only you in the media who have to write about it care about it. But it's the overall impression of activity and innovation."
By contrast, Denton says, "Mary Sue Terry is being minimalist and defensive. She can't attack the past, because she's part of it."
Furthermore, whenever Terry has advanced a proposal, spending or otherwise, Allen has a ready retort - if it's such a good idea, why haven't the Democrats done it already?
The result, the analysts say, is a governor's race that was supposed to be a cakewalk for the well-financed Terry turning instead into a forced march that she may have to fight every step of the way.
Two recent polls have found the campaign effectively tied, and many analysts sense momentum is now tipping in Allen's favor. "You can feel it slipping away from the Democrats," Sabato says.
Part of the problem, the analysts say, is that Terry has not yet developed a rationale for her candidacy - except that it's "her turn."
"She doesn't own many issues," Denton says.
The centerpiece of Terry's campaign has been her call for a five-day waiting period for buying handguns, a proposal designed to address voters' fears about rising crime.
But a recent poll by Virginia Commonwealth University found that even though 75 percent of Virginians favor the waiting period, that hasn't translated into support for Terry's gubernatorial bid.
In fact, those who want a waiting period are almost evenly split between Terry and Allen, the poll found. Apparently, these voters may want a waiting period, but many of them aren't willing to cast their vote on that issue alone.
Sabato and Denton say that means only one thing: If Terry can't find an issue voters care about, she must soon "go negative" against Allen.
"She needs to punch holes in Allen's proposals and record," Sabato says. "Voters are not likely to fall in love with her, but they may agree to a contract with her for four years of governance. What she needs to do is keep voters from falling in love with Allen."
"She's only got a matter of a few weeks to find a wedge," Denton says. "She has to attack the person and get people to vote against Allen. It's going to become very vicious, because she has no choice."
Republicans are delighted by this prospect. Many think the Democrats have missed opportunities to put Allen away early. "Mary Sue's mistake is she's been playing not to lose," says state Sen. Brandon Bell, R-Roanoke County. "She doesn't want to put out any plans somebody can pick apart. She doesn't want to risk anything. Her campaign has been run like a football team ahead in the fourth quarter, but now momentum is on the other side."
Goldman, who directed Gov. Douglas Wilder's two victorious statewide campaigns, agrees that Terry must become more aggressive - but disputes the notion that the public's desire for change is dragging down Terry and boosting Allen.
Instead, Goldman says, for the first time in a generation, there is a governor's race where both candidates have united parties behind them. In 1969, 1973 and 1977, it was the Democrats who were split by internal ideological warfare. In 1981, 1985 and 1989, it was the Republicans who were fractured.
"Everybody thought this would be the fourth round, and the Republicans would self-destruct again," Goldman says. "The Republicans themselves have to be stunned it hasn't happened. They came out of their convention expecting it would."
Because it hasn't, Goldman says, "the natural Republicanism of the state has now asserted itself. By coalescing that around him, Allen looks stronger than anybody thought."
Still, the result is only a tie in the polls - and that's the good news for Terry, Goldman says.
But instead of waiting for the Republicans to, as he puts it, "self-destruct," Terry must now take the initiative and split Allen's base herself, Goldman contends.
"If nothing intervenes in the next few weeks, you have to do it yourself," Goldman says. The trick is, he says, no one is quite sure how to do that. "No one's faced that in the modern era of Virginia politics."
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by CNB