Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: TUESDAY, October 5, 1993 TAG: 9310050158
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: C-1 EDITION: STATE
SOURCE: DALE EISMAN and ROB EURE STAFF WRITERS
DATELINE: RICHMOND LENGTH: Medium
A Washington Post poll released Sunday was the second in recent weeks to show a dead heat in the contest between Terry and Republican George Allen. It showed similarly close contests for lieutenant governor and attorney general.
As recently as May, Terry enjoyed a 29-percentage-point lead in a Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research Inc. poll. The race has turned, various analysts suggested, because of voter disgust with such other Democrats as President Clinton, Gov. Douglas Wilder and U.S. Sen. Charles Robb; Terry's failure to give voters a good reason to support her; and Allen's ability to make himself the candidate of change.
There's "a feeling that it's time for a change, and you add to that a president whose popularity has not been overwhelming and a governor whose popularity has been underwhelming, and you have a big burden on Mary Sue Terry," said John McGlennon, a veteran Democratic activist who teaches political science at the College of William and Mary.
"This is not a time to be an incumbent," said Virginia Tech political scientist Robert Denton, but Terry must wear that mantle by virtue of her seven years as attorney general under Democratic governors.
He likened her position to that of George Bush in the presidential race last year. "She says: `I've been there; trust me,' " while Allen plays almost the role of Clinton. "He's got all these proposals . . . ."
Denton argued that "voters are frustrated in terms of government. . . . They're looking for change or at least prospects of change, ideas, innovation."
Edward S. DeBolt, a veteran Republican strategist who this spring managed businessman Earle Williams' unsuccessful campaign for the GOP nomination, offered a harsher analysis of Terry's campaign.
"The Democrats decided to take a 90-day holiday and tread water" after their convention in May, he said. "The Kenny Rogers song says don't spend your winnings before you leave the table. They spent their winnings in June and spent the summer deciding where they want to live in Richmond and who they would appoint. She was taking her coronation for granted."
DeBolt suggested that as many as one-third of the voters - who either haven't made up their minds or whose support for a particular candidate is not strong - could still be up for grabs.
That's good for Republicans, he argued, "because we are scrappers. Terry's gotten to this stage in her career without serious hand-to-hand combat. George was ready to fight the day he got the nomination. He was battle toughened."
Terry's campaign got a strong defense from former state Democratic chairman Paul Goldman. Democrats "have been sort of spoiled by the last three Democratic sweeps, which were as much a product of Republican incompetence as Democratic strategy," said Goldman, who was Wilder's chief strategist in 1989.
Goldman argued that the current campaign marks the "first time in a generation that neither party has nominated someone who has . . . self-imploded."
by CNB