Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: SUNDAY, October 17, 1993 TAG: 9310150221
SECTION: CURRENT PAGE: NRV-2 EDITION: NEW RIVER VALLEY
SOURCE: ELIZABETH OBENSHAIN
DATELINE: LENGTH: Medium
A lot of people who could make a difference were there . . . and by the end of the day most seemed to buy into the idea of coming up with a joint vision for this eight-county region.
One of the best things about being a journalist is you have an excuse to be a fly on the wall at such gatherings. So I thought I would share what I saw and heard from my fly's perspective at this mingling of small-town mayors with big-town corporate types, of real estate developers with academics, as they talked about their concerns for the region.
This first forum of the New Century Council was one of the few meetings I've come away from feeling that I've heard some new ideas - this time from some experts on the future brought in to shoot some sacred cows and give us a different perspective on the region.
Here in the New River Valley, we've been both possessive and jealous of the huge engine that drives our local economy. I think we see ourselves as an island of prosperity fueled by state dollars for Virginia Tech and Radford University. We're not sure if we want to shake Roanoke's hand when it is extended or slap it away from our biggest toy.
David Rusk, a national authority on urban growth, had some cautionary words for the valley.
Almost no county with a major university outside of a metropolitan area has family income above the national average - this despite the high salaries paid by these institutions.
We can explain some of that. When students who have no income account for one-third of a town's population, that's going to skew the town and county's income averages.
Yet in the whole New River Valley, even with the steady pump of state dollars, our workers earn only three-fourths of what workers average in other parts of the state.
Rusk's point was that not only does a metropolitan area need a major university, but a major university needs a metropolitan area - its population, its resources - if it is to be the engine of economic prosperity for its region.
One local official called Rusk's prescription "a cold splash of water." It is sobering, that's for sure. But maybe we needed to hear it.
Another look into the future came from a white-haired wizard by the name of Harold Hodgkinson.
He gave the audience a sobering snapshot of the college class of 2010 - born last year.
It's not going to be a stellar crop, he warned, because these children are growing up in poverty and in single-family households. Approximately 50 percent are expected to live with only one parent, where the average family income is $17,000 compared to $44,000 for a two-parent family.
Childhood poverty is terribly hard to overcome, he said, pointing to one chart that showed a staggering correlation between family income and SAT scores.
This outlook for the next generation has huge implications not just for higher education, but for business and society. Adults who grew up in poverty are not likely to graduate from college, to hold jobs or be able to pay their own way, Hodgkinson said, yet they will be the generation most of us will depend on to finance our society as we ease into retirement.
As for economic development, he pointed to the challenge less urbanized areas such as our own face in competing with the mighty urban crescent that stretches from Boston south to Richmond - a huge black hole sucking in new jobs and people.
The competition has gotten tougher, not just globally but locally, too. Other communities also have economic development programs and vision projects under way.
Our biggest enemy, according to many at the conference, may be our own ambivalence about ourselves, our neighbors and our future.
Skepticism and fragmentation may be the biggest hurdles for the numerous communities in coming together and channeling energy toward a common goal.
Unfortunately, no charismatic leader is going to solve our problems . . . we have to do it ourselves. If we don't, we'll show up in the next census with even flatter growth, lower ranking for family income, more minimum wage jobs.
The key may well be, at a time when everyone is too harried, whether enough people will simply take the time and put their energies into the New Century Council's efforts - as well as efforts here in the New River Valley - to develop a vision and then spend the long hours to move us there.
"An invisible line is being drawn across the western end of Virginia," Walter Rugaber, publisher of the Roanoke Times & World-News told the audience Tuesday. On one side is Appalachia, a declining region that is losing both jobs and hope.
One the other side, is a growing economy fueled by the medical industry, entrepreneurship, a vibrant cultural life.
On which side of this line will these two valleys find themselves in the next 25 years?
by CNB