Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: SUNDAY, October 24, 1993 TAG: 9310240207
SECTION: HORIZON PAGE: F-4 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: DWAYNE YANCEY
DATELINE: LENGTH: Long
History favors the former, regardless of what happens in the governor's race.
Republicans made steady gains in the House of Delegates through the 1980s, even when Democrats were winning the governorship. In 1981, even though Democrat Charles Robb won the governor's race by a solid margin, Republicans swam against the Democratic tide and picked up eight seats in the House. In 1989, even though Democrat Douglas Wilder took the governorship, Republicans gained four seats in the House.
Only a creative redistricting plan fashioned by the Democrats - Republicans would say "gerrymandered" - has been able to slow the Republican advance.
This year, Republicans claim a George Allen tide is "lifting all boats," especially in rural areas, where opposition to Mary Sue Terry's proposed five-day waiting period on handgun purchases is fierce - and GOP strategists believe voters may now vote a straight Republican ticket.
"In Southside and Southwest Virginia, George Allen is way ahead, and as a consequence, our races we didn't think would be competitive are competitive," says Scott Leake, the director of the Republicans' legislative delegation. "In our polling, we're finding results we couldn't believe were true."
He's even claiming the GOP has an outside shot at knocking off enough Democrats to win a majority of the House of Delegates. At worst, Leake says, the Republicans will wind up in the high 40s with a "working majority" in which Republicans combine with a handful of conservative Democrats to control the House.
Democrats say "nonsense"; their legislative director, Kevin Mack, insists his party may buck tradition and make gains this year. He says his party has managed to recruit unusually strong candidates even in marginal districts. "The Democrats are running on local issues, while the Republicans tend to fit into a mold and their campaigns tend to be cookie-cutter campaigns run from Richmond," Mack says.
We'll see soon enough who's right. In the meantime, with 76 of the 100 seats being contested, here are some key races around the state to watch:
\ 1st District: Longtime Del. Ford Quillen, D-Scott County, is retiring. His departure has set off a scramble in Virginia's southwestern corner between Jonesville lawyer George Cridlin, a Democrat, and Scott County prosecutor Terry Kilgore, a Republican. The GOP is counting on this race as one of their best shots at picking up a Democratic seat.
\ 5th District: Del. G.C. Jennings, D-Marion, was elected in 1981 and is generally thought to be a safe bet for re-election. His Republican opponent, Barney Kidd, the owner of a Tazewell County welding shop, lost badly in their 1991 match-up. But Kidd is waging an energetic campaign again and hopes the gun issue will turn rural voters against all Democrats, no matter what their position on the waiting period. He's also targeting Jennings' vote against requiring parents to be notified before their juvenile daughters seek an abortion. Republicans push this race as a sleeper. There's also an independent, retired hospital worker Tom Linville of Marion.
\ 23rd District: The sometimes-acerbic Del. Steve Newman, R-Lynchburg, is one of the few Republicans thought to be in any trouble. He faces a stiff challenge from Gilliam Cobbs, formerly a popular teacher in the city and now a marketing consultant. With fund-raising help from Lynchburg state Sen. Elliot Schewel, Cobbs is especially well-financed for a challenger.
\ 29th District: Del. Al Smith, D-Winchester, is a 20-year veteran who is the Democrats' chief fund-raiser in statewide races. Now he's retiring, and the race to succeed him is being closely watched throughout the state. His district leans Republican, but in farm equipment dealer Buzz Sandy, Democrats have fielded a candidate they think can appeal to conservative valley voters. The GOP candidate is Beverly Sherwood, who owns a Christmas tree farm.
\ 31st District: Del. Jerry Wood, D-Warrenton, just barely won in 1991, when this was a new seat created in redistricting. Now Republican Jay Katzen, a corporate adviser, is mounting a strong challenge. This race in horse country has two Roanoke connections: Wood is a Roanoke native, and his campaign manager, Danny Frei, is the Roanoke-based consultant who managed Mayor David Bowers' campaign.
\ 51st District: Northern Virginia districts are historically volatile; there's so much population change that legislators often find their constituents know nothing about them. That could be the case here: Del. David Brickley, D-Prince William County, has served since 1976 and in 1982 easily dispatched Republican Clancy McQuigg, a financial planner. Now there's a rematch that's said to be as close as Northern Virginia's rush-hour traffic.
\ 61st District: Del. Lew Parker, D-South Hill, is a 20-year veteran who has become a power in the House; he even contended for the speakership when A.L. Philpott died. But now he's facing the race of his political life. Clarksville furniture store owner Frank Ruff is running a classic incumbent-is-out-of-touch campaign. The complication for Parker: Nottoway County Supervisor Jack Green is running as an Independent; Green is black, and in a district that's almost 40 percent black, he could siphon off enough votes to cost Parker the election. If so, the Republicans will have felled a mighty big tree in the legislative forest.
\ 64th District: Del. William Barlow, D-Smithfield, won this seat in 1991 following the retirement of veteran Hardaway Marks. Now he's being challenged by Republican Debra Quesinberry, a pharmacist from Henrico County. Democrats had considered Barlow safe; but Quesinberry won credibility when she received the endorsement of the Fraternal Order of Police. Now this race is considered a squeaker.
\ 74th District: Del. Bob Ball, D-Richmond, is chairman of the House Appropriations Committee. Normally that's enough to guarantee a safe seat. But Republicans made a point of recruiting candidates, strong or otherwise, for all the Democratic leaders just to keep them busy. The Republican here, dentist Gordon Prior, is generally regarded as a long shot. But he's well-known locally for his community work in anti-drug programs. The odds are with Ball, but this may still be a race to keep an eye on, just in case.
\ 76th District: Del. Robert Nelms, R-Suffolk, upset veteran Sam Glasscock in 1991. But he's since gotten bogged down in political fights with fellow Republicans back home; the local GOP chairman even tried to recruit a challenger. Now, the party is split and conservative Christian activists are said to be on the sidelines. That could be good news for the Democrat, Suffolk lawyer Jack Eure.
by CNB