
                         Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: FRIDAY, December 10, 1993                   TAG: 9312100155
SECTION: BUSINESS                    PAGE: B-11   EDITION: METRO 
SOURCE: Associated Press
DATELINE:    WASHINGTON                                LENGTH: Medium

FORECAST: GROWTH WITHOUT INFLATION

Many of the nation's top economists think the economy will continue to grow moderately next year without setting off a new round of inflation.

The consensus forecast of 51 economists polled in early December by Blue Chip Economic Indicators calls for 2.9 percent growth in the gross domestic product in 1994, up from a projected 2.8 percent this year. The GDP is the total output of goods and services within the United States.

The December consensus for 1994 is higher than November's 2.8 percent forecast published by the Sedona, Ariz., newsletter.

Still, the improvement "did not come at the expense of the panel's optimistic view on inflation," wrote editor Robert J. Eggert.

In fact, the forecast for the 1994 Consumer Price Index slipped to 2.9 percent in the December survey from 3 percent a month earlier.

The CPI rose 2.9 percent in 1992 and was rising at a 2.8 percent annual rate in October. The government will report the November inflation rate today.

The survey participants work in banks, businesses, economic forecasting services, universities and Wall Street firms.

Twenty-eight of them raised their forecasts this month for economic growth next year.

They cited a drop in unemployment, continued strength in housing, autos and other durable goods and the nearly 8 percent advance in business investment spending.

But despite the drop in the jobless rate to 6.4 percent in November, the Blue Chip consensus predicts unemployment will be 6.5 percent a year from now.

The forecast sees the economy growing at a 3.8 percent annual rate this quarter, up from 3.3 percent in the November survey and the 2.7 percent reported by the government in the July-September quarter.

Many think it is expanding even faster.

"In fact, an average of the 10 largest estimates of fourth-quarter economic growth came in at a whopping 4.6 percent," Eggert wrote.

The economists do not think that rate can be sustained, however. The consensus for the first three months of 1994 is an annual rate of 2.8 percent, and 2.7 percent in each of the next three quarters.

by CNB