
                         Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: MONDAY, March 28, 1994                   TAG: 9403280006
SECTION: NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL                    PAGE: A-6   EDITION: METRO 
SOURCE: Associated Press
DATELINE: WASHINGTON                                LENGTH: Medium

DON'T COUNT YOUR CABLE BILL REDUCTION UNTIL IT'S HATCHED FCC STILL HASN'T

Consumers demanded it, the Federal Communications Commission ordered it, but that's still no guarantee that bills for cable are about to fall.

The FCC decreed a cut in February, saying it would "bring prices down another 7 percent." But there's no guarantee that's what subscribers will see when the change is finally implemented.

That's because the FCC hasn't spelled out the formula that cable companies and local regulators must use to figure new rates. Additionally, rates depend on which services each subscriber takes.

The formula is contained in a rate order that the FCC is expected to issue this week. It is long overdue.

With so many details still in the air, cable companies have been thrown into chaos. Millions of dollars are at stake. Their bankers are jittery. And local regulatory authorities worry about what the new rules will do for consumers.

David Olson, director of the Portland, Ore., Office of Cable Communications and Franchise Management, said he doesn't expect all 140,000 cable subscribers in his city to receive a 7 percent reduction, no matter what the FCC said in its February announcement.

"The press releases announcing what the FCC is going to do [do] not always have a one-to-one relationship to reality," he said.

He noted that the FCC's first set of cable regulations, issued almost a year ago, sometimes resulted in rate increases - not cuts. That won't happen this time, local regulators predict.

At the time, the FCC predicted bills for two-thirds of all cable subscribers would drop by as much as 10 percent.

Sixty-eight percent did, but - to the FCC's surprise and Congress' dismay - 31 percent of consumers got increases.

This prompted demands that the FCC revisit the rules. It did so, last month.

Susan Herman, general manager of Los Angeles' Department of Telecommunications, said she is uncertain about the impact on the 520,000 subscribers she oversees. And New York state cable regulator William Finneran, who oversees 3.9 million cable customers, shied away from predicting the outcome.

But Bill Squadron, president of a local regulators' lobby group called the National Association of Telecommunications Officers and Advisors, predicted "a significant percentage of consumers will see rates go down."

If the new FCC rules come out soon, Herman thinks consumers could see a drop in their bills by late summer or early fall. Olson thinks December is a surer bet.

And some consumers may have to wait longer. If cable systems appeal local rate decisions, the new rates won't take effect until the disputes are resolved.

The new rules mean more work, cable executives and local regulators said. Whether more work translates into a longer wait for consumers depends on the resources of local regulators.

by CNB