Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: THURSDAY, September 8, 1994 TAG: 9409080088
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: C3 EDITION: NEW RIVER VALLEY
SOURCE: ASSOCIATED PRESS
DATELINE: WASHINGTON LENGTH: Medium
But an official of the Washington Metropolitan Council of Governments, or COG, said the reports compiled by Virginia cities near the nation's capital are the same ones that have rendered accurate regional growth forecasts in the past.
A study that the council has prepared on the effect the Disney's America theme park near Haymarket, Va., would have is so erroneous it is unusable, a group called Citizens Against Gridlock said.
``It appears the COG has been jimmying the numbers,'' said Michael Replogle of the Environmental Defense Fund, a former chairman of the Transportation Planning Board's forecasting subcommittee.
The Transportation Planning Board is scheduled to decide Sept. 21 whether the theme park threatens to significantly worsen metropolitan Washington's air pollution problems.
Adding thousands of tourists' cars to the region's highways will make it harder for Washington to meet lower ozone levels required by the federal Clean Air Act. The region must file a plan by Nov. 15 for meeting those standards or face the possible loss of all federal transportation funds.
Ron Kirby, director of transportation planning for the COG, said the group fighting the theme park was trying to create confusion by citing conflicting figures compiled for completely separate purposes.
Citizens Against Gridlock said it had found several flaws in the analysis COG prepared. They included:
A disparity about the number of additional jobs the park would create. Gov. George Allen and supporters of the Disney project estimated 10,500 new jobs in Prince William County, but the COG estimated 3,800 new jobs by 2000, creating a low projection of the number of automobile trips to the park.
The COG revised its assumptions about traffic entering and leaving the region on Route 28 in northern Virginia in 1999 from 70,000 cars a day without the Disney park to 21,000 vehicles a day with the Disney project in place, suggesting Disney's effect is minimal or even beneficial.
COG's study counts only 400 new homes built in the Disney area by 2010, although Disney itself intends to build 2,300 new homes to accommodate the new jobs the park creates.
COG failed to consider the new Cellar Door amphitheater four miles east of the proposed Disney site and the 4,200 cars that will be added to the commuter traffic flow on evenings when there are concerts at the amphitheater.
Kirby said the figures are different because they reflected the findings of different surveys.
``What we put in our forecasts for jobs are just for the local Metro D.C. area, but there may very well be other jobs generated elsewhere in the state of Virginia that result from Disney,'' Kirby said. ``And those are the figures that Governor Allen was using.
``A lot has been made over their claims that there are two different sets of figures. Well, that's because they are different figures that represent totally separate things.''
by CNB