Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: SUNDAY, September 11, 1994 TAG: 9409210031
SECTION: EDITORIAL PAGE: D-3 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: By WAYNE G. REILLY
DATELINE: LENGTH: Medium
It would be at least churlish not to celebrate this outbreak of peace, but there are good reasons not to become euphoric about the future of Ireland. Many problems remain on both sides of the border in Ireland, and it will behoove makers of American foreign policy not to act without a careful assessment of those difficulties.
Among the most obvious remaining problems in Northern Ireland is the fact that while the IRA may have terminated its military activities, the British/Protestant paramilitary organizations have not agreed to follow suit.
Many Loyalists - those in Northern Ireland who support a continued British loyalty - see the IRA's cease-fire as part of a betrayal by the British government, and in consequence have little motivation to end their own violent activities. These British/Protestant paramilitary units have been responsible for the majority of sectarian killings in Northern Ireland in the past three years. If they increase their activity, it would be impossible for the IRA not to respond.
In short, the cease-fire depends on the good will of people who see it as a step in the process of their own betrayal.
A less obvious problem centers on finding common ground for shaping some kind of a permanent agreement.
Both the British and Irish governments are on record as saying that no solution to the difficulties in Northern Ireland can be imposed without the consent of the people of that province. The difficulty is that the IRA refuses to accept any decision about the future of Northern Ireland based on such a formula. Their rejection rests on the knowledge that the majority of Northern Ireland's population wishes to remain part of the United Kingdom. The IRA argues that the situation in Northern Ireland is an "all Ireland" problem and that, therefore, the proper constituency for any vote about Northern Ireland would be the people of all of Ireland.
As might be expected, the IRA's demand finds no favor among Northern Ireland's Loyalists. There appears to be little room for maneuver between the proposals of the British and Irish governments and the demands of Sinn Fein and the IRA.
The most important, and least acknowledged, problem for the future of Ireland falls under the heading of "be careful what you wish for; you may get it."
Ever since the partition of Ireland in 1921, all political leaders in the Irish Republic have dutifully offered the incantation that they want to unify all of Ireland. While that desire may be genuine, the two parts of Ireland have gone their separate ways in the past 70 years. Not surprisingly, people in the republic have tended to focus their attention on their own problems, and the situation in Northern Ireland has gradually lost its centrality in Irish life.
Today, the Irish Republic has a booming economy and has begun to share the kind of lifestyles that are prevalent in the remainder of the European Community. Part of Ireland's good fortune is that it is among the most homogenous countries in the world, and has avoided many of the social stresses and strains that have plagued other European countries. If the cease-fire in Northern Ireland were indeed the beginning of Irish unification, then this happy homogeneity would come to an end.
When speaking off the record, many leaders in the republic will say that the last thing the republic needs at this time is the infusion of a million angry and armed British/Protestants. On more than one occasion, such leaders have expressed to me their fear that an all-Ireland republic would result in exactly the same kind of situation that Great Britain has endured in Northern Ireland - a government confronted by a rebellious minority that it can neither coerce nor conciliate.
In this ironic context, many in the republic may find it necessary to pay lip service to the grail of all-Ireland unity while hoping mightily that such unity is not achieved soon.
Two cheers then for the present victory of the politicians over the "hard men" of the IRA and for even the limited peace in Northern Ireland. Having expressed approval and admiration for what has been achieved, it is necessary to remember that the problems of Ireland are still enormous.
Seemingly simple solutions such as "Brits Out" and a "united Ireland" are not now and have never been "simple solutions." All would do well to avoid the disillusionment that often follows great expectations by remembering the words of the Irish poet William Butler Yeats: In Ireland, "peace comes dropping slow."
Wayne G. Reilly is a professor of political science at Hollins College.
by CNB