Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: THURSDAY, September 15, 1994 TAG: 9409150093
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: A-1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: BY WARREN FISKE AND MARGARET EDDS STAFF WRITERS
DATELINE: RICHMOND NOTE: STRIP LENGTH: Long
Independent U.S. Senate candidate Douglas Wilder abruptly canceled his campaign schedule Wednesday after two polls were released showing him trailing badly in what essentially has become a two-person race between Democrat Charles Robb and Republican Oliver North.
A source within the Wilder campaign said it is uncertain whether the former governor will resume his campaign and that Wilder is "taking stock of where everything stands."
The Washington Post, quoting a source it did not identify, said Wilder would ``bite the bullet'' and announce today that he is dropping out of the race. Wilder cited his continued low standing in the polls and his inability to raise the money necessary to compete against two well-funded party nominees, the source said.
Wilder press secretary Dan Conley would not confirm or deny that. ``He's heading home to assess,'' Conley said.
Sources said the campaign was disappointed by the two polls. One survey, done for the Roanoke Times & World-News and WDBJ (Channel 7) by Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research Inc. of Columbia, Md., showed Robb at 33 percent, North at 28 percent, Independent Marshall Coleman at 15 percent, and Wilder trailing with 12 percent.
Another poll, conducted by Virginia Commonwealth University in Richmond, showed North at 34 percent, Robb at 31 percent, Wilder at 13 percent and Coleman at 10 percent.
Both surveys were taken after a Sept. 6 televised debate at Hampden-Sydney College that Wilder said in an interview Sunday had propelled him within striking distance of Robb. The Wilder source said having two polls showing the campaign stagnant "removes a lot of the doubt" about Wilder's prospects.
But if Wilder's campaign was disappointed by the polls, many Democrats were both jubilant and surprised that one survey showed Robb leading North and another had him trailing only slightly.
In interviews earlier in the week, Robb partisans had predicted that the incumbent would be trailing - and perhaps badly - in the next published polls. Their concern stemmed from the fact that North has been pummeling Robb with paid advertising and campaigned vigorously this summer while Robb remained ensconced in Washington attending to Senate business.
Campaign strategists were at a loss to explain the differences in the two surveys, although some of the gaps could be attributed to the 3.5 percent margin of error in each poll.
But political scientists said it is clear that the contest has been reduced to a two-person race in which Wilder and Coleman appear to be little more than spoilers.
"Both polls confirm Robb's strategy that it is a two-tiered race and he's the only viable alternative to Oliver North," said Tom Morris, a political scientist who is president of Emory & Henry College. "It has to be interpreted as good news for Robb."
Democrats lost no time in trying to strongarm the independents out of the race and focus attention on North. "The only candidate who can prevent Oliver North from getting in the Senate is Chuck Robb," said Mark Warner, chairman of the state Democratic Party. "Therefore, a vote for either Wilder or Coleman is really a vote for Oliver North."
Asked if Wilder might throw his support to Robb, his longtime rival in the Democratic Party, Conley told the Post: ``I'll tell you unequivocally he won't endorse Chuck Robb tomorrow. You can put that in your paper.''
While Republicans questioned Robb's lead in the Mason-Dixon poll, they acknowledged that the contest has boiled down to a tight race between Robb and North. "This is a dead heat and it could swing either way," said Mark Merritt, a spokesman for North. "I don't believe it. I do not believe it," said Donald Huffman, a former state Republican chairman from Roanoke, of the Mason-Dixon results. "When Robb comes out here, nobody pays any attention. ... There's so much enthusiasm for Oliver North, it's unbelievable."
According to political scientists, the polls raise two strategic questions for the remainder of the campaign:
Is North capable of expanding beyond his Republican base or is he limited to a support ceiling of about 35 percent to 40 percent of the electorate?
"For the past two months, North has dramatically outspent his opponent, he has received the most attention and done the most advertising and he's picked up no ground on Robb," said Mark Rozell, a political scientist at Mary Washington College who said he considered Mason-Dixon the more authoritative of the two polls. "That says that there are many voters out there who are unpersuadable on Ollie North."
Does the closesness of the two-man race mean that a flurry of negative advertising is imminent?
The Mason-Dixon survey of 843 Virginia voters showed that both Robb and North have made slight but steady gains over the summer at the expense of the independents. In June, Robb was leading North by 28 percentage points to 21. Coleman, meanwhile, dropped from 25 percent to 15 percent and Wilder from 22 percent to 12 percent.
Robb's favorable ratings have remained relatively stable during the period, while North - who has waged an aggressive campaign to improve his image - has seen his favorable ranking move up from 27 percent to 32 percent of voters. Still, 46 percent of voters view him unfavorably, the highest negative rating for any of the four candidates.
Wilder is close behind with a 43 percent unfavorable rating, followed by Robb with 39 percent and Coleman with 24 percent.
Particularly distressing to the Wilder camp may be the Mason-Dixon measure of black voter sentiment. Robb was leading among black voters surveyed by 44 percent to 36 percent. Wilder, who was the nation's first elected black governor, had been relying on a strong base of support from that group.
However, the VCU poll showed Wilder with 54 percent of the black vote, compared with 24 percent for Robb.
Robb led decisively in Northern Virginia and Tidewater, while North led by smaller margins in central Virginia and the Shenandoah Valley. The poll showed them neck and neck in Roanoke, Southwest Virginia and Southside.
Wilder's lunchtime remarks to the Roanoke Kiwanis Club on Wednesday sounded more like a recapitulation of his career than a campaign speech. Challenged by a minister to prove that he is not running because of vindictiveness toward Robb, Wilder pointed to how he initially dropped out of the race in January.
"I didn't ask for a price. I didn't ask for an ambassadorship. I didn't ask for a position. I got out of the way," he said. He re-entered the race after Robb won the Democratic primary in June.
After the lunch, Wilder canceled an appearance at a health care forum and headed back to Richmond. Carolyn Word, his local escort, said she was leading Wilder's caravan to the forum in Salem. At one point, she noticed that the driver of Wilder's car was honking at her, but she kept going. When she got to Salem, Wilder no longer was following her.
She called Wilder's Richmond headquarters, Word said, and was told that an emergency had come up.
The Mason-Dixon poll was conducted Sept. 8-11. The VCU poll was taken Sept. 8-13.
Staff writer Dwayne Yancey contributed to this story.
Keywords:
POLITICS
Memo: NOTE: Different version ran in State edition.