Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: THURSDAY, September 15, 1994 TAG: 9409160016
SECTION: EDITORIAL PAGE: A-15 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: Ray L. Garland
DATELINE: LENGTH: Long
THE GREAT Napoleon observed, "He who dares, wins." But he also said, and proved, "There is only one step from the sublime to the ridiculous." With these maxims in mind, let us assess the campaigns of the four men who would be senator from Virginia.
Oliver North long ago revealed his strategy of being superman come to supermart - but with an open-collar, just-folks style that seems exactly right for the proletarian/populist temper of the times, and which gives him reach into constituencies not normally sympathetic to Republican hopes.
Facing the congressional inquisition on Iran-Contra seven years ago, North knew just what to do. And when he stepped down from the witness chair, he also knew he had tapped a gold mine. His challenge now is to overcome a discernible odor of scam artist at work by causing people to focus on that larger scam artist at work in the White House.
So far in this campaign, North has raised more than $13 million, and money is said to be rolling in at the rate of $100,000 a day. Having begun his quest many moons ago, North has a crack staff in place that allows him the luxury of staying on the road doing what he does best.
It costs about $450,000 a week to maintain a strong, statewide presence on television. While Sen. Charles Robb is sure to take to the airwaves shortly, and the other candidates may be competitive at the end, when the channels are choked with political ads, North has had the tube to himself for three months. Clearly, he has the loot to stay on as well as the money for other media and direct mail.
In sum, North has done everything he reasonably could do to overcome his powerful negatives and establish himself as the copper-bottomed conservative in this race. In so doing, he seems to have headed off Marshall Coleman's independent insurgency on his flank and positioned himself as the man to beat.
Now the question is who among the other three is the man to beat North? As the official Democratic candidate, nominated by open primary, that is logically Robb. Were he other than a colossally inept advocate for his own cause, there would be little debate: This is really a race between North and Robb.
Former Gov. Douglas Wilder is telling anybody who will listen that he will overtake Robb and emerge at the end as the only real alternative to North. Given Robb's record, one is inclined to hope it might be so.
If true independence is your cup of tea, Wilder will serve it up by the imperial gallon. And judging purely on the basis of demonstrated political and legislative skill over many years, he would be the most effective senator.
Wilder needs, of course, a million-dollar media pot for the final phase, and he'll probably have it. But he also needs a compelling message that will move disaffected voters holding both liberal and conservative opinions. He started this campaign in danger of being thought too liberal for conservatives and too conservative for liberals, and little has been done to change that. Maybe it was impossible.
Having distanced himself from groups helpful in past victories, such as organized labor and white liberals, Wilder has to be asking himself the question: Who else is out there, other than black Democrats who like Clinton and have never had any real beef with Robb?
A procession of prominent black Democrats endorsing Robb has certainly strained Wilder's credibility. But when the votes are counted, I think we'll find a majority of African-Americans standing with the man in whose accomplishments they have every reason to take pride, and that man is Doug Wilder. The bad news is this is good for no more than 15 percent of the vote.
If the invasion of Haiti goes off as scheduled - or the warlords voluntarily depart - a new dynamic will enter the race. While few Americans outside the Congressional Black Caucus - and certainly not Wilder - want to see us take this chore on, my guess is that the initial wave will be greeted by the woebegone Haitians more as saviors than as conquerors. The hard part will come later, of course, probably after the election. But Clinton may get a nice pop of public approbation as scenes of triumph and works of charity are beamed nonstop into American homes.
As the one candidate willing to support the president, Robb may also expect a small dividend.
By reason of two defeats for governor, Marshall Coleman had no real future in elective politics and little to lose by making a long-shot bid for the Senate. But time, money and reputation aren't negligible commodities. As a well-paid Washington lawyer, he can make up the first two. But a dismal showing will inflict a durable scar.
Coleman alone among the candidates had the freedom to create a fresh vision to challenge business as usual: neither left nor right, but forward to attack the real cancers gnawing the nation's vitals. Instead, he has stuck with a very conventional Republican appeal, hoping he could either supplant North as the choice of conservatives or, failing that, somehow eclipse both Robb and Wilder as chief challenger to North. It was a strategy that required a miracle. So far, no miracle.
If political opinion in this country were less polarized than it is, there might be space for a common-sense moderate willing to call the shots as he sees them. But Robb has spent two years cultivating the good opinion of those who think well of President Clinton, and North has been at it almost as long gathering up those who see this administration as a dangerous fraud. It just doesn't leave much room in between.
Ray L. Garland is a columnist for the Roanoke Times & World-News.
by CNB