Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: WEDNESDAY, September 21, 1994 TAG: 9409230077
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: C-1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: Associated Press
DATELINE: RICHMOND LENGTH: Medium
The Richmond Times-Dispatch/12 News poll, the first statewide survey since Wilder's sudden exit Thursday, suggests that his supporters may be largely split between Robb and North, with a handful shifting to the remaining independent candidate, Marshall Coleman, who ran a distant third.
``There's no question that we've got a race on our hands,'' Robb said. ``I'm not taking anything for granted. ... It ought to underscore the importance of this particular race and the need to make sure that we get our message out.''
The poll shows North with 37 percent; Robb, 31 percent; and Coleman, a former Republican attorney general and twice-defeated candidate for governor, with 9 percent.
Twenty percent were undecided, and 3 percent favored none of the candidates - unchanged from a Times-Dispatch/12 News poll concluded last Wednesday, the eve of Wilder's withdrawal. That survey put the Democrat-turned-independent at 11 percent.
The latest poll, conducted Thursday through Monday, showed Robb picking up 4 percentage points, North gaining 5 percentage points and Coleman advancing 2. But the gains were within, or close to, the margin of error of 5 percentage points - meaning that movement from Wilder's column may have been negligible.
The poll, to be published today in the Richmond Times-Dispatch, was based on telephone interviews with 517 registered voters by the research department of Media General Inc., parent company of the Times-Dispatch.
An earlier poll, by Virginia Commonwealth University, suggested a slight lift for Robb in a three-way race. The Commonwealth Poll, conducted Sept. 8-13, before Wilder's withdrawal, indicated that Robb would be boosted into a virtual tie with North if Wilder quit the race.
The North organization said the new Times- Dispatch/12 News poll was proof that Robb was sputtering. A spokesman for Coleman said the race remained volatile and that voters would not make a final decision until the closing weeks of the campaign.
Mark Merritt, North's deputy campaign manager, said Robb had ``permanently alienated'' a large number of black voters because of his ties to the Wilder eavesdropping scandal. That resulted in the convictions of three Robb aides.
Further, ``African-Americans can identify with Ollie North. They see him as a victim of abuse by the power elite, and they see Chuck Robb as part of the power elite,'' Merritt said, referring to North's role in the Iran-Contra affair.
C. Anson Franklin, Coleman's campaign manager, said it was too early to determine the effect of Wilder's withdrawal. Franklin suggested that once Coleman elevates his profile with paid advertising, Republican-leaning voters would break his way.
If Coleman were to leave the race, voters would split almost evenly between Robb and North, according to the Times-Dispatch/12 News poll. Forty-one percent would back Robb, while 43 percent would favor North.
Other findings of the poll:
Asked whether Robb's admitted marital indiscretions made him less qualified to be a U.S. senator, 67 percent said they make no difference. As for North, whose felony convictions in the Iran-Contra affair were overturned on appeal, 49 percent said his legal history made no difference, while 44 percent said it made him less qualified for Congress.
Robb and North were almost even in their favorable/unfavorable ratings. Forty percent viewed Robb favorably; 37 percent unfavorably. As for North, his favorable rating was 41 percent, compared with 37 percent unfavorable. Coleman was viewed favorably by 30 percent; unfavorably by 17 percent.
Keywords:
POLITICS
by CNB