Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: SUNDAY, January 2, 1994 TAG: 9401020011
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: B1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: WARREN FISKE STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: RICHMOND LENGTH: Long
According to some, Howell won with the orchestrated help of thousands of Republicans who crossed party lines and voted for him in the primary over then-Attorney General Andrew P. Miller. Legend has it that Republicans temporarily rallied for Howell because they believed he would be the weakest candidate in the general election against Republican John N. Dalton.
And when November came, those Republicans switched back their votes, helping Dalton romp to the governorship.
Others dismiss the scenario, saying Howell won the primary because he did the best job of organizing.
Were not Virginia Democrats planning to hold their first primary since 1977 this year, the debate would be little more than a footnote in history books. But with Gov. Douglas Wilder and U.S. Sen. Charles Robb preparing to square off in a volatile June 14 primary for Robb's seat, political junkies once again are wondering whether Republicans could be in a position to choose the Democratic nominee.
That's because Virginia law once again will open the primary to all voters, not just Democrats. The Old Dominion is among about 20 states which do not register voters by their political party, making participation in primaries unrestricted.
The potential for mischief is high because Republicans will not hold a primary to choose their Senate candidate. They are expected to nominate Oliver North - the central figure in the Iran-Contra scandal - at a state convention June 4.
Between 8,000 and 13,000 GOP activists are expected to attend the convention. Some say it could provide a perfect setting for Republicans to orchestrate a vote for the weakest candidate in the Democratic primary 10 days later. And if the race between Wilder and Robb is as close as expected, those ballots could make a difference.
"A lot will depend on whether North wants to send out a signal," said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist. "For North to do it, he has to decide who he would want to run against."
That could be a tricky decision for North, who could not be reached for comment. A recent poll by the Richmond Times-Dispatch showed that Virginia's voters favor Robb over North, although slightly, and North enjoying a slight lead over Wilder.
But many Republicans, noting that the primary is still six months away, caution against forming conclusions that Wilder is weaker than Robb. They say that Wilder, with his strong record as a fiscal conservative, may be better positioned than Robb or North to attract the support of the independent voters needed to win a general election.
"Which Democrat is the weaker candidate?" asked M. Boyd Marcus, a Republican strategist. "It's very much an open question and that makes any crossover vote very difficult to orchestrate."
Several Republican leaders said they would oppose an organized crossover vote, calling it bad sportsmanship and acknowledging that they would be irate if Democrats ever did the same thing to them.
"There will be no effort to encourage a crossover vote in 1994," said Patrick McSweeney, chairman of the state Republican Party. "We need to get people focused on our own candidates.
"I believe a strong two-party system is absolutely essential," McSweeney added. "If the motive [of crossover voting] is to nominate someone who is the least attractive, obviously it doesn't serve any public interest."
Other Republicans seem less bothered by the tactic. Gov.-elect George Allen recently boasted that he was among the party faithful who crossed lines in 1977 to vote for Howell because he viewed the candidate as a weak liberal.
One GOP activist, who asked not to be identified, was excited by the prospect of a repeat performance this year. She noted that North has "thousands" of highly motivated conservative Christian supporters who would be eager to follow a command to vote in the Democratic primary. "If someone wanted to hire me to orchestrate it, I think I could do it," she said.
State Democratic leaders, heeding the requests of Robb and Wilder, decided early last month to hold a primary. Many who opposed the primary warned about the possibility of Republican infiltration.
"They absolutely plan to vote for whoever they perceive to be the weakest candidate," said Christie Vernon of Newport News.
Other Democrats say the fear is unfounded. "It has never been demonstrated that crossover voting has any impact," said Paul Goldman, an adviser to Wilder who also worked on Howell's 1977 campaign.
Goldman said not all crossover voters support the weakest candidate. He predicted that many Republicans who participate in the primary would back who they perceive to be the strongest Democrat to set up a viable alternative to North.
"You have to understand people's psychology," he said. "The average person doesn't understand the concept of voting for someone they don't want. It doesn't make sense to anyone but a few party activists."
Joe Elton, an adviser to North and former executive director of the Virginia Republican Party, agreed. "Most people ultimately want to vote for people who they think are positive, not those they think are negative.
"Certainly, plenty of Republicans take credit for influencing" the 1977 Democratic primary, Elton added. "To be honest with you, I think more people take credit for it than actually did it."
There is no way of knowing how many Republicans voted for Howell that year. Studies from other states that keep such records suggest there is only about a 1 percent crossover vote in open primaries.
If that was the case in 1977 when 500,000 Virginians cast ballots in the Democratic primary, Howell would have received 5,000 Republican votes - less than half of his 13,000-vote winning margin.
"Howell would have won anyway," Goldman said. "He ran a better campaign than Miller. But that was 17 years ago. Let's give it a rest."
Keywords:
POLITICS
by CNB