Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: SUNDAY, January 9, 1994 TAG: 9401040337
SECTION: BUSINESS PAGE: F3 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: Mag Poff Staff Writer
DATELINE: LENGTH: Medium
Tim Garrison, president of the Roanoke Valley Association of Realtors, said he expects mortgage interest rates will remain low during 1994.
If that's the case, he said, "we think 1994 will be a good year."
People will buy homes, he explained, because consumer confidence is starting to pick up.
"People are more optimistic about the future of the Roanoke Valley," said Garrison, who works with Boone & Co.
Garrison said there was more activity at the end of last year than there was a year earlier in 1992.
Although the weeks following Thanksgiving generally mark a slow period for home sales, Garrison said, real estate agents also saw a surge in buying homes valued at $150,000 or more late in the year. That, he said, is a sign of people moving up into better houses.
He also sees evidence of people moving into the valley again from other communities. They are being transferred here by Transkrit Corp., a business-forms manufacturer moving its headquarters from Brewster, N.Y., to Roanoke, and other companies.
Garrison described himself as "cautiously optimistic" about residential real estate sales in the Roanoke area this year.
Edwin Hall of Hall Associates Inc. is more enthusiastic about the prognosis for commercial real estate.
Hall said 1994 will be the best year since 1990 and 1991.
He explained that commercial real estate activity was carried over from the end of last year into the first quarter of this year.
That activity should provide good business for the first quarter and for the entire year of 1994.
Leasing had been static, Hall said, but commercial leasing is picking up.
Although he had no figures, Hall said his experience shows that the inventory is starting to shrink. He and his staff have fewer vacancies to show to prospects, especially office space.
Sales, he said, "picked up dramatically in the last 90 to 120 days." Sales of vacant land were especially strong.
"It may not be the roaring '80s," Hall said. But he added that he is "pretty optimistic" that this year will be the best of any in the last few years.
Michael Waldvogel of the real estate firm of Waldvogel, Poe & Cronk predicted that commercial real estate sales "are going to be fairly strong."
"Interest rates may tick up a little bit," he said, not substantially but enough to scare people about a further rise and thus bring them into the market.
Lenders will be "prudent but more aggressive," especially in the case of owner-occupied premises, Waldvogel said. Banks will "make sure of underlying value, appropriately documented, appropriately appraised."
Money also will be available to investors, even as there are good investment opportunities in the Roanoke Valley.
Money won't be chasing deals, as happened in the '80s, he said, but it will be available for reasonably sound financial transactions.
Waldvogel believes that vacant office space will be absorbed, although there is little opening for new commercial construction.
In downtown Roanoke, he said, space needs to be filled. He noted that the Colonial Arms Building at Jefferson and Campbell avenues still is largely unoccupied.
The State and City Building on Campbell Avenue closed to office tenants at the end of November. Waldvogel predicts it will soon be sold to a new owner with plans for renovation.
The First Federal Building, formerly the CorEast Building on Church Avenue, is slated for remodeling soon. Waldvogel expects a first-class job of the type that brought the Liberty Trust and Professional Arts buildings to 94-95 percent occupancy. If so, it will fill up because "it's a great location."
There are also many office vacancies on the north side of town, he said.
The south side, which last year had a 12 percent vacancy rate, will fill up more quickly, Waldvogel said.
If there is any new commercial construction, Waldvogel said, it will occur on the south side of the Roanoke Valley.
by CNB