Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: SUNDAY, January 9, 1994 TAG: 9401050285
SECTION: BUSINESS PAGE: F1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: John Levin Business Editor
DATELINE: LENGTH: Long
But it's also an apt assessment of the mood at Roanoke regional companies toward 1994.
Area business leaders are optimistic - 69 percent of those polled think their companies this year will outperform 1993's business - but they're also cautious - 51 percent expect not to hire any additional workers, and 55 percent have no capital expansion scheduled.
But fewer than 15 percent of the companies reported no anticipated layoffs or other work force reductions in 1994.
"Look at the sales and work force numbers," said Harry Wilson, director of the Center for Community Research at Roanoke College. "When you add them up, they suggest local companies are optimistic about the things they can control.
"What they're concerned about are the things they can't control: the national economy, consumer confidence and government regulation."
Wilson's center compiled results from the latest annual Roanoke Times & World-News economic survey. For nearly two decades, the newspaper has polled business leaders each fall about the year's business results and the outlook for the coming 12 months.
Questionnaires were mailed in late November to executives and operators of 144 Western Virginia companies; 75 responded, a 52 percent rate of return.
"It's a respectable response rate," Wilson said, "a little higher than what you'd expect" from a broad survey in which respondents do not have a vested interest in the results. Mail surveys generally solicit response rates ranging from 20 percent to 80 percent, he said.
The responses were confidential. Companies identified themselves only by their lines of business and size of work force. Roanoke College supplied the newspaper the compiled statistics and any comments to open-ended questions.
Only for companies engaged in manufacturing, real estate and construction, retail and wholesale trade, and finance was the sample large enough to provide a valid view of their lines of business.
Key findings, Wilson said, show:
Government is widely viewed as an enemy of business. "There is no way of knowing from these results if it's a reaction to the Clinton administration or to government in general," he said.
"Everybody who mentioned government talked about it in a negative context. It probably has little meaning for this year, but it has meaning for the long-term relationship between business and government."
Interest rates, while still at the top of many people's minds, are less of an issue than expected. Slightly fewer than 22 percent said their companys' 1993 performance was affected by interest rates, but 18.5 percent feel rates will have an impact in 1994.
"For some, such as those in the construction industry, interest rates affect them directly," Wilson said. "For others, it's an indirect impact, and bigger impacts are consumer confidence.
"It doesn't mean they don't think interest rates are important, but that other things will be more important in the next year."
A significant portion of the replies mentioned changes at other regional companies as affecting either their businesses or the region's economy. Acquisition of Dominion Bankshares Corp. by First Union Corp., departure of Cooper Industries Inc.'s Gardner-Denver Mining & Construction division, and layoffs at DuPont's Martinsville nylon plant were mentioned as negatives; Yokohama Tire Corp.'s expansion was named as having a positive impact.
Here are some of the comments:
"Roanoke's growing global economy has opened up the globe to using my services [and] to get clients the recognition they want around the world. It's a whole new ballgame," wrote the head of a four-person consumer- and business-service outfit.
"Hotel Roanoke's reopening will be an important account locally. Growing regional interest in tourism is already boosting my business."
"The state's capital bond issue has provided increased construction activity at local colleges. Restructuring of how health care is provided has presented construction opportunities. Low interest rates should be reflected in increased construction," was the reply from a 90-worker construction company.
"I believe the ability and desire of our area to pull together and find a `vision' for this region will ultimately prove to be the single most important public issue for us."
"Lack of new high-tech businesses [and] continued turf battles among local governments," were cited as factors limiting 1993 business by the respondent for a 48-person manufacturer. This year, the person said, will be marked by "restructuring, seeking out new direction, new and different products, expanding into new territories outside the Roanoke Valley."
"Conditions of very limited growth are pervasive in both the national and regional economy," was the reply from a manufacturer with 3,000 Virginia employees. "This has forced many companies to establish intensified programs for the purpose of controlling costs. This, together with [weak global economies, plus new taxes and regulations] most strongly influenced the region's economy.
"External factors in the past few years have been more challenging than any we have seen in the past 20 years."
by CNB