
                         Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: SUNDAY, January 9, 1994                   TAG: 9401070024
SECTION: BUSINESS                    PAGE: F2   EDITION: METRO 
SOURCE: Lon Wagner Staff Writer
DATELINE:                                 LENGTH: Medium

SILVER LINING: SLOW, STEADY JOB GROWTH

Western Virginia is expected to create jobs this year at about the same pace it did in 1993: very slowly.

Those who measure the economy say slow growth is the reality of this 1990s economic recovery. But Roy L. Pearson, director of William and Mary's Bureau of Business Research, sees a silver lining in this recovery.

"It has been a slow recovery, but a steadier recovery than some of the past rebounds," Pearson said. "When you get up to an 8 or 9 percent recovery, you can't sustain that for long."

Last year saw major Virginia companies, such as Richmond-based Philip Morris Co., announce layoffs of thousands of workers. For the most part, Pearson expects that workforce housecleaning, politely called "restructuring" by the companies, to have subsided.

Construction jobs grew in 1993, and economists think that will continue this year. The reason? Much of the excessive retail and office space created in the 1980s has gradually filled up.

Just as the buildings have filled, workforces have been trimmed about as much as possible. The state's tourism industry, for example, saw a significant increase in activity last year, but businesses held off hiring new people.

"They were able to meet that demand with existing jobs," Pearson said. "People were leery of adding workers."

Roanoke's job growth should keep pace with the state's forecast job growth of 1.3 percent this year, Pearson said. The Virginia Employment Commission's economist Bill Mezger is more optimistic for this year, predicting 1.8 job growth.

Consumer spending continues to be the primary driving force behind this growth. Consumers opened their wallets sporadically last year, but economists think people are getting accustomed to slow growth and will start buying more regularly.

"I'm looking for households to spend at a steadier pace this year," Pearson said.

And if businesses also get comfortable with this 1994 version of an economic recovery, that consumer spending will translate into more jobs - sooner or later.

by CNB