
                         Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: THURSDAY, January 13, 1994                   TAG: 9402250024
SECTION: EDITORIAL                    PAGE: A12   EDITION: METRO 
SOURCE: 
DATELINE:                                 LENGTH: Medium

NON-PROLIFERATION

PRESIDENT CLINTON, a political-tightrope walker of rare ability, is trying to keep his balance in a new arena this week, and so far he's managing well.

The breakup of the Soviet Union brought with it the danger that former republics will spawn new nuclear powers that are politically and economically unstable, and still feeling threatened - with some cause - by an unpredictable Russian bear.

Given Russia's own instability and fears, demonstrated dramatically by the ultranationalist challenge to President Boris Yeltsin, it is all the more crucial that the nuclear threat be defused. To do this the West, led by the United States, must reassure former Soviet republics and satellites that they don't need weapons of total destruction to keep Russia at bay. At the same time, we must take care not to embrace these nations so closely as to light xenophobic fires and incite imperial urges that have prodded Russians in the past to expand territory to protect their borders.

This is a complicated, difficult task, and it is in this context that the Ukrainian president's agreement this week to rid his nation of its nuclear arsenal is such a heartening achievement. It is also in this context that Clinton's reluctance to throw open NATO right away to Eastern Europe makes sense.

NATO's "Partnership for Peace" offers those countries a chance for cooperation with the West and the hope - if not the promise - of eventual alliance. Its aim is to reassure Eastern Europe, while avoiding sudden moves that could be mistaken by Russian nationalists as a threatening encroachment.

Whether this soothes Russian fears or quiets nationalist saber-rattling remains to be seen. But Ukraine's agreement to relinquish its 1,800 nuclear warheads has to bolster Russian confidence about its own security, as well as world prospects for avoiding the consequences of a swelling nuclear club in that part of the globe.

Ukraine's parliament is not yet convinced that it dare give up its nuclear safety net, but Clinton predicts with his usual confidence that it will be persuaded once it learns the details - reportedly as much as $1 billion, a promise that neither Russia nor the United States will attack Ukraine with nuclear weapons, and a pledge by Russia to honor Ukraine's territorial integrity.

Much as they might have liked to avoid discussion this week of the horror in Bosnia, NATO leaders - rightly - have not been able to. But, meantime, if the Clinton administration can finalize the agreement with Ukraine, it will be an impressively adept foreign policy success showcasing his ability to win consensus among opponents - assuming, that is, the agreement does not offer more than the West is prepared to deliver. Promising too much is another Clinton hallmark, one shared by NATO allies and painfully evident in Bosnia.

by CNB