Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: SUNDAY, January 23, 1994 TAG: 9401220179
SECTION: ECONOMY PAGE: EC-13 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: CAROL KLEIMAN CHICAGO TRIBUNE
DATELINE: LENGTH: Medium
Even to seasoned surfers, the outlook is challenging: There is job loss at the same time that there is job creation.
Both are the result of a restructuring of the U.S. work force that is changing the type of worker needed and the way jobs are performed. And continuing high unemployment rates are caused in part by this mismatch in skills.
The losses: Tens of thousands of jobs were eliminated nationwide in 1993, with more cuts projected for 1994.
Hard-hit industries include defense, computers, transportation, communications, public utilities, finance, insurance, real estate, pharmaceuticals, retail and health care.
The gains: Despite the loss of jobs, the nation netted 1.4 million new jobs in the first 10 months of 1993, according to U.S. Labor Secretary Robert Reich. And more job creation is projected for 1994.
Twenty-five percent of all jobs created in 1993 were professional or technical, a statistic that will increase in 1994 and that reflects the continuing move toward automation.
Sixty percent of the new jobs in 1993 were in temporary services, retail and health care. Ironically, the latter two also are among those industries drastically cutting their work forces.
"Corporate downsizing tends to blur the fact that there's an ebb and flow going on, with people losing jobs and people getting jobs," said Audrey Freedman, New York-based economist and management consultant.
"The ups and downs are terrible compared to the days when you were able to get a permanent, full-time job. But in a completely rigid labor market, there were few ways to work part time, be self-employed, pick up a second or third job or take on a special project. Today, our market is flexible - and workers must adapt to it."
Workers are finding jobs, she adds, "but unfortunately, they're lower-paying ones."
"Those who are getting hired have specific skills that can be easily identified by employers," said Ruth O'Connell, labor market economist for the Illinois Department of Employment Security.
Take IBM, for instance, which reduced its work force by 60,000.
But IBM continues to hire, though sparingly.
"We've hired people with specialized skills, such as industry consultants, computer engineers, software engineers - particularly in systems software development - and electrical engineers," said Scott Brooks, an IBM representative based in Armonk, N.Y.
"We've been adding and subtracting as most other companies have," said Burke Stinson, AT&T spokesman in Basking Ridge, N.J. "Most of the jobs phased out have been those of operators, behind-the-scenes managers, clerks and administrators, and also technical people who did on-site visits."
New hires include software developers, those with computer-science skills and experts in markets new to AT&T, both in the United States and abroad.
"In 1994, we will continue to add and subtract people," Stinson said. "We have less need for people in the field tents and more for those on the front line."
The "people in the field tents" are middle managers, whose ranks were depleted beginning in the 1980s at IBM and other major corporations.
"Middle management is going and will continue to be reduced, not only to cut the number of employees but to get more flexibility in the workplace," said economist Freedman. "The introduction of computers and the rigidity of the old-line corps are what killed it."
However, she adds, middle managers, and therefore MBAs, still are being hired by smaller companies. "A lot of little places need managers," she said. "They're not high-flung jobs with high pay, but they do provide opportunity."
Survivors of downsizing are not immune to further cuts: Companies that downsize usually continue to do so.
"Doing more with less is not a temporary catch phrase; it's going to be the way business is done from now on," said O'Connell, the Illinois labor market economist.
"The way to survive is never to stop learning, never stop adding skills. Take courses in personal computing and programming languages. Take a foreign language, sharpen your communication skills. And watch for trends in your area: Just as you keep track of home values where you live, you can learn a lot about the economy by keeping your eyes open."
Freedman, a member of the board of directors of Manpower Inc., a national temporary services and employment data firm, says that even while you are riding the waves of change, don't despair.
"It's a hard hustle - moving all the time and running hard - to stay employed, and no one can do it for you," she said. "It's not useful to refer to the `good old days,' because they are gone, and you will never have that kind of security again. You'll have to rely on yourself."
AT&T's Stinson is pragmatic in his approach to the job market. "Be at the right spot at the right time. And it doesn't hurt to know the right people."
by CNB