Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: MONDAY, January 31, 1994                   TAG: 9401310038
SECTION: NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL                    PAGE: A-2   EDITION: METRO 
SOURCE: Associated Press
DATELINE: WASHINGTON                                LENGTH: Medium

WELFARE ESTIMATE DISCOUNTED

The computer estimate, which has been under discussion at the Department of Health and Human Services, would require a massive public jobs program that Congress probably would oppose as too expensive.

Although administration officials acknowledged the preliminary estimate, they said the number has little significance because it is based on a false assumption about how many people actually will be on welfare when the new policy goes into effect.

"The 2.3 million number is irrelevant and misleading," said department spokeswoman Melissa Skolfield.

The estimate first was discussed at a Jan. 14 meeting at the Department of Health and Human Services. One official who attended the meeting said the estimate was developed as a preliminary exercise to gauge what impact various policies would have on the size of the welfare rolls.

"It did not account for the effects of current policy, health reform or for other policies," said the official, who spoke on the condition that he not be identified further.

The administration plans to propose to Congress this spring that welfare payments be limited to two years and that recipients must find a job after that. Currently there are an estimated 5 million low-income families, most of them single mothers, getting welfare under Aid to Families with Dependent Children.

The Clinton administration still does not know how many parents will be pushed into the job market after the two years expire, the official said. "It's certainly not going to be 2.3 million."