Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: SUNDAY, February 20, 1994 TAG: 9402200121
SECTION: HORIZON PAGE: F-5 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: by Dan Ward
DATELINE: LENGTH: Medium
I asked Cubans on both sides of the Florida Straits what they thought was going to happen in their homeland in coming years.
It's not surprising that Cubans in South Florida have a much different idea of what will be than those who stayed behind. But all agreed that Cuba cannot exist long under current conditions.
Fidel Castro himself has said that Cuba must change now that communism is all but dead in Europe. His model has become China, which has moved toward a free market economy. So far, Cuba's steps have been tiny; Cubans can now operate some small businesses, such as barber shops, and farm small plots for profit.
The Cubans I talked to in Miami say it's too little, too late. Besides, political repression is as bad as ever. Castro has got to go, they say.
The most popular scenario on either side of the straits has one of Castro's deputies assassinating him. One Cuban said he thought Castro would loot the treasury and skip the country, probably to Spain. Nobody suggested Castro might resign and turn over the reins to a non-Communist, as leaders did in Eastern Europe.
One Miamian told me he is aligned with Jorge Mas Canosa, leader of a Cuban-American organization that has worked for years on a master plan for post-Castro Cuba. He said the group has won commitments from a fast-food chain and several other corporations to Americanize Cuba's economy the moment Castro is gone. Cubans in exile will return, reclaim property taken by the Communists and sell Whoppers to the masses.
When I asked what the people in Cuba might think of that, he shrugged. Those who remain in Cuba are either brainwashed or too passive to take command, he said. Another Miami Cuban said the people have grown lazy without a profit motive and could not grasp the rebuilding that needs to be done. They would only benefit from a rule by returning exiles.
A dissident I spoke with in Cuba said he would welcome whatever the exiles could contribute to the rebuilding of Cuba, but scoffed at their arrogance. The exiles, in their comfortable Miami homes, have become indifferent to Cubans' suffering, he said. Their plans are not grounded in reality; their nostalgia for the homeland is based on what has been gone for 35 years.
The two communities also appear divided on suggestions that the United States end its trade embargo on Cuba.
"Dollars will kill Castro," the dissident in Havana said. As American money gains standing in the Cuban economy, and as Cubans see how Americans live, Castro's power base will crumble, he said.
Embargo opponents contend that it only affects the poorest people. Those in power and those who can get money from relatives in the States can continue to live comfortably. In a country that worships political martyrs, the embargo bolsters Castro's contention that the United States is a bully. As long as he can keep the people unified against the Yankee threat, he can stay in power.
Opponents also note that we have dropped our embargoes against China and Vietnam, despite continuing human-rights violations and concern that we haven't learned all we could about war MIAs. They note that the embargo on Haiti has been catastrophic for the people, while the military rulers have yet to concede anything.
And while U.S. companies and their overseas affiliates are prevented from trading with Cuba, plenty of foreign firms aren't.
Embargo proponents note, correctly, that the U.S. embargo is responsible for Cuba becoming so dependent on the Soviet Union and, ultimately, so isolated. Where political repression failed to force a counterrevolution, a crumbling economy might. Why lift the embargo now that Castro is on the ropes?
Perhaps there is a middle ground - a loosening of restrictions on travel and trade in medicines and food, while continuing the oil embargo. If the United States is going to win the hearts and minds of Cubans, it will not do so by playing the bully.
by CNB