Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: WEDNESDAY, February 23, 1994 TAG: 9402230176
SECTION: SPORTS PAGE: B-1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: JACK BOGACZYK
DATELINE: LENGTH: Medium
So, about 120 diners at Tuesday night's Roanoke Valley Sports Club meeting were waiting for the former Virginia coach to tell them how a team reaches the NCAA field.
He couldn't. It's not that simple.
"The biggest misconception is probably that it [being selected among the 34 at-large teams in the field of 64] is strictly related to some formula," Holland said. "It's not. There's a lot that goes into it."
So, one of the great mysteries of life remains so. That isn't to say it wasn't an enjoyable and informative evening at the Salem Civic Center. Holland, the athletic director at Davidson College, his alma mater, said he misses coaching.
He just doesn't miss it enough to get back into the profession. His work with the basketball committee, plus working as an analyst for ESPN and on the ACC network keeps him close enough to the game.
The selection and seeding process the nine-man committee will begin in 15 days at a Kansas City, Mo., hotel can be graying enough. And each of the nine has his own bottom-line criteria after all the numbers are crunched.
"The thing I look at is the schedule," said Holland, stressing that his answer reflected only his opinion and not that of the committee. "I appreciate a team that plays a tough schedule, particularly a tough non-conference schedule.
"Some people may have a good record, but maybe they got by on a tough [non-conference] schedule by other people in their league."
Duke athletic director Tom Butters, finishing his six years on the committee as the chairman for a final tournament, said Tuesday that despite the increased parity in the game, he doesn't expect that selecting the 34 at-large teams will be any tougher than in 1994.
"The seeding, that's what will be very difficult," Butters said during a conference call. "I don't think, because of parity, there will be a vast difference between lines [regional seeds] 4-5-6-7."
Holland echoed one of Butters' comments from earlier in the day.
"You can play your way out of a bad seed," each said. "But you can't play your way into the tournament."
The Ratings Percentage Index, one of the tools used by the basketball committee to select and seed the field, has been changed this year to give greater weight to a team's non-conference schedule.
The RPI is based 25 percent on winning percentage, 50 percent on strength of schedule and 25 percent on opponents' schedule of strength, the last of those categories lowered from 40 percent a year ago.
How much will that change a team's RPI? Probably not much. Two things about the RPI seem certain. No team outside the top 50 in the RPI will make the field as an at-large team. No team with a top 30 RPI has failed to receive a berth.
The ACC will get five or six bids. Duke and North Carolina are in. Three among Maryland, Wake Forest, Virginia and Georgia Tech will make it. Could it come down to the difference between victory and defeat in the No. 3-No. 6 and No. 4-No. 5 seed games in the first round of the ACC Tournament?
"Very much so," Holland said.
In this week's RPI, Tech, Wake, Maryland and UVa are ranked Nos. 23, 24, 25 and 28, respectively. However, UVA stands fourth in the toughest-schedule poll, two spots ahead of the Yellow Jackets. Wake is 25th, 10 ahead of Maryland. In foes' schedule strength, Tech is 12th, followed by the Terps (22), UVa (25) and Wake (40).
"Some of that will sort itself out in the next week, and not just in the ACC," Holland said. "I remember the way you approach it [as a coach] is that you try to get a win and as soon as you beat someone, you root for 'em, because that makes you look better."
Asked whether only parity among the upper-echelon conferences mattered when the committee starts voting, Butters said the power leagues "would get only five and six [bids] if they fall within the best 34 teams.
"You may be deciding whether second place in the 14th-ranked conference is better than fifth or sixth place in a conference ranked No. 1 or No. 2. That can get difficult and I can tell you, the decision there is not going to be made on tradition. It will be on how things fall out in 1994."
The committee's job became easier last year when it didn't have to select any teams with losing records in their conferences. The increased parity this season may put some 7-9 or 6-8 teams in position to be picked.
They'll wrestle with that. However, it still appears that Sweet 16 isn't only a phrase used to describe the tournament's regional semifinals. No at-large team has made the field with fewer than 16 victories.
Any team with 16 victories that wants to play in the field of 64 had better play a tough schedule and be from a tough league. Is that better than 21 victories against lesser competition?
Butters, Holland and seven other men will provide the answer. Even then, how they arrive at it will remain one of the great mysteries of life.
by CNB