Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: SUNDAY, February 27, 1994 TAG: 9403030009
SECTION: HORIZON PAGE: F1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: Dwayne Yancey Staff Writer
DATELINE: LENGTH: Long
\ A year ago, most people said they didn't want to see the valley's population growth rate change much.
In the past decade, the valley's population increased by just 2 percent, and most people thought that was just fine. Here's what folks told the Roanoke Valley Poll in 1992 about the valley's population growth rate:
Today, most people still don't want to see the valley's population growth rate change much - but not as many as there were a year ago.
The percentage of folks who said the valley's slow population growth was about right fell by eight percentage points, and now hovers below the 50 percent mark. Is that significant?
Probably not, says Harry Wilson, the Roanoke College political scientist who directed the poll. Probably just a statistical blip, but it might be worth paying attention to in future polls. The key point, he notes, remains the same: Less than one in five people surveyed think the valley's population ought to be growing slower.
\ At the same time, most people remain frustrated with the Roanoke Valley's economy.
Two-thirds say the valley's economic growth rate over the past five to 10 years has been too slow; that figure is unchanged from last year.
\ In fact, people are so eager for economic growth, they're willing to accept the population growth that might come with it.
When given a choice between no population growth/no economic growth and tolerating some population growth in exchange for some economic growth, economic growth clearly won out.
Wilson remains puzzled over the near-unanimous response. ``When you see a 97 percent answer, the question is usually `do you think the sun will rise tomorrow?''' Was this question such a throw-away? He doesn't think so. He says he worked hard to formulate a question that would force those surveyed to make a difficult - but realistic - choice.
``What it tells me is how desperate people are for economic growth,'' Wilson says.
\ Most people agree that population growth would be good for the valley's economy.
What effect would population growth have on economic growth in the Roanoke Valley?
Put another way: 77% say population growth would have a positive effect on economic growth in the valley. Only 11% said population growth would be bad for the valley's economy.
Does population growth spur economic growth? That's debatable, says Hollins College economist Mary Houska, who follows the region's economy. It's a ``fading school of thought.'' But the real point to remember, she points out, is that economic growth almost inevitably creates population growth - people move to where the good jobs are.
``You can't expect quality economic growth without some population growth,'' agrees David Rusk, a Washington, D.C.-based urban consultant. ``It just doesn't happen.''
On that score, those who studied the poll say it strongly suggests that while folks in the Roanoke Valley don't really want population growth, they're so eager for economic growth, they're ready for whatever population growth comes their way.
``That shows you have a strong vote for promoting economic development in a more aggressive way,'' Houska says.
\ Even more surprising, most people think population growth would be good for their personal quality of life.
What effect would population growth have on your personal quality of life?
Put another way: 56% said population growth would have a positive effect on their personal quality of life. Only 9% said population growth would be bad for their personal quality of life.
``I'm stunned,'' says Rusk, who has studied the Roanoke Valley's economic history and spoke last fall to the New Century Council, a group of business and community leaders trying to draw up an economic ``vision'' for the region. In his talks with Roanoke Valley leaders, he'd always heard that citizens here were flat-out opposed to population growth.
Others who studied the poll data were equally amazed, but all came to the same conclusion.
``I don't think people are afraid of population growth,'' says Reginald Shareef, an expert on organizational behavior and leadership who teaches in Radford University's political science department.
In fact, Wilson says, they think it might be good for them in some very personal ways - such as their pocketbook.
People probably want controlled growth - not rampant sprawl.
The poll shows people sending mixed signals: They like the current growth rate, but acknowledge a faster one might be better for them and the community.
Rusk says that's probably another way of saying people want managed growth, with strict limits on where growth can occur - and what kind. ``People are saying they want economic growth. They're prepared to accept population growth. But they want it controlled. By golly, they don't want to have sprawl climbing up the side of the mountains.''
Wilson agrees. ``If people thought we'd deface the mountains, the support would probably go down considerably.''
There's a deeper point to be made here, too. The poll suggests that if valley leaders make a case that something will promote economic growth, people will accept it, even if they don't like it, Wilson says. ``If it means we get jobs, people will accept just about anything.''
But the poll shows leaders haven't made that connection on some key issues facing the region.
Among them:
\ People don't see how closer ties between the Roanoke Valley and Virginia Tech will help create more jobs.
The poll gave those surveyed six ways to promote economic development and asked them to pick the two they thought would be the best strategy for the Roanoke Valley.
Nearly three-fourths of those surveyed said the valley should try to create more manufacturing jobs. But only 1 in 10 said the Roanoke Valley should try to forge closer ties with Virginia Tech - which has been a top agenda item for many valley leaders, who see the state's largest research university as a vital economic engine in a high-tech economy.
Best strategy to promote economic development (pick two):
``For two years running, stronger ties with Tech finishes way down on the list,'' Wilson says. ``That's because people are not seeing a link between Roanoke and Tech as a source of jobs. No one has effectively made that case yet. It's been made effectively to higher-educated folks,'' but not the general public.
That's a danger sign, Wilson warns.
Valley leaders are still free, of course, to promote closer ties between the Roanoke Valley and Virginia Tech, just as they've pushed tourism - even though the poll shows the general public is lukewarm to tourism. ``We don't have evidence people are opposed to that; they just don't think it's important,'' Wilson says.
But if the public doesn't think closer ties with Tech are a good way to create jobs, then voters might not support the projects needed to make that happen.
There may be another reason why people in the Roanoke Valley don't place much economic importance on better ties with Tech:
\ People don't see much economic relationship between the Roanoke Valley and the New River Valley.
The poll asked people in the Roanoke Valley how they define the Roanoke Valley - and how they define Roanoke's larger economic region.
Specifically, the poll sought to find out how many people see an economic link between the Roanoke Valley and the New River Valley.
That's not an idle line of questioning. In the new world order, economists agree it's increasingly important for communities to band together to think and act in regional terms on economic issues.
As the global economy makes national boundaries more porous, the world is seeing the rise of the modern ``city-state'' - in which a single metropolitan area and its surrounding region function as a single economic unit, trading and competing with similar ``city-states'' around the world.
One of the most frequently cited example of a modern ``city-state'' is Charlotte, N.C., whose economic reach includes not just the city that bears its name, but outlying cities that have prospered because they're close by.
For instance, both Spartanburg, S.C., and Greenville, S.C., have become famous for attracting foreign investment - mostly recently, the German automaker BMW - because they've traded on their proximity to Charlotte, now a national banking capital and an international air hub.
``When Charlotte pictures itself, it sees the benefits of BMW locating in South Carolina, because Charlotte realizes people will commute from Charlotte to South Carolina and bring their money and tax base back to Charlotte,'' Shareef says. ``They see themselves in a more holistic sense than the Roanoke Valley.''
That's why many Roanoke Valley leaders - and academics who have studied the region's economy - say the Roanoke Valley needs to blast away Christiansburg Mountain (figuratively, of course) and ally itself with the New River Valley.
But the public's not buying it.
\ For one thing, people in the Roanoke Valley have a narrow sense of what constitutes the Roanoke Valley.
What localities are in the Roanoke Valley? Here's what percentage of folks in the Roanoke Valley (which, for polling purposes, we define as Roanoke, Roanoke County and Salem) said about whom:
Roanoke's in, of course. So are Roanoke County and Salem. But Botetourt County's not ...
... even though parts of southern Botetourt are closer to the city than much of Roanoke County.
... even though parts of southern Botetourt are as much a bedroom community for Roanoke as Cave Spring and Oak Grove.
... and most critical of all, even though southern Botetourt has the developable land that Roanoke, Roanoke County and Salem lack. After all, that's where the Connex plant went last year and where Lawrence Transportation Systems is building its new place.
Virginia Tech geographer Susan Brooker-Gross, who has studied how the region defines itself, sees another problem. She points out that 1 in 10 people aren't sure whether Roanoke County is part of the valley, and that 1 in 5 wouldn't count Salem.
Why do so many people have such a narrow sense of place that they wouldn't look on Roanoke County and Salem as integral parts of the Roanoke Valley? ``If they're not in the valley, what is?'' she asks.
\ Most people do acknowledge that Roanoke's wider economic region includes Botetourt County, Franklin County and Bedford County (just barely) - but not the New River Valley.
What localities are in Roanoke's region? Here's what percentage of folks in the Roanoke Valley said about whom:
The New River Valley's omission may be another warning sign for Roanoke Valley leaders who are pushing a regional approach to economic planning, Wilson warns. ``If they're going to have a regional approach, it's going to have to come from government officials, not the grass roots, because public opinion isn't there. Most of us are still defining the region pretty narrowly.''
So why isn't the New River Valley included? Here's the big reason:
\ The more education someone has, the more likely the person is to see Roanoke as part of a larger economic region.
The poll breaks down those who answered the survey based on how much education they have. The results are pretty stark.
Here's how those with less than a high school education defined Roanoke's region:
Here's how those with a high school degree defined Roanoke's region:
Here's how those with some college education defined Roanoke's region:
And here's how those with a college degree defined Roanoke's region:
``I have never in 10 years of working with survey data seen data this clear,'' Wilson says. ``You just don't see results like this.''
But those results aren't surprising, says Brooker-Gross, the Tech geographer. To a large extent, people are probably thinking in terms of commuting distance, she says - and education serves as a shorthand for the types of jobs people have. For blue-collar workers, there's little commuting between the Roanoke Valley and the New River Valley. But white-collar workers may have business contacts over a larger area and thus are more inclined the see the world in a broader way.
\ The bottom line: Only those with a college degree see Montgomery County as part of Roanoke's economic sphere of influence.
``Maybe it's a function of following the debate,'' Wilson says. Those with more education may be paying closer attention to the ongoing discussions over the Roanoke Valley's economic future.
But that has ``policy implications,'' Wilson says, especially for those pushing closer ties between the Roanoke Valley and Virginia Tech. Right now, they're talking to themselves. What they need to do, he says, is articulate to the general public why those ties are important, and why they'll help create jobs for people other than Ph.D.s and corporate executives.
That's why Shareef, the Radford specialist on leadership, reads the poll's findings as an indictment of the Roanoke Valley's leadership. If people with less than a college degree don't see that the Roanoke Valley and the New River Valley are economically linked, it's the leaders' fault for not showing them, he says.
``I see a problem with leadership,'' Shareef says. ``There's nobody articulating that particular vision. In a global economy, this is just not going to work. We are still thinking of ourselves as separate entities, but a region has to promote itself as a region.''
by CNB