ROANOKE TIMES

                         Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: SUNDAY, February 27, 1994                   TAG: 9403040015
SECTION: HORIZON                    PAGE: F1   EDITION: METRO 
SOURCE: 
DATELINE:                                 LENGTH: Medium


TIME FOR A MIDTERM REVIEW

IT'S BEEN A YEAR SINCE THE ROANOKE TIMES & WORLD-NEWS EMBARKED ON ``PERIL AND PROMISE,'' A SERIES EXAMINING THE ECONOMIC FUTURE OF WESTERN VIRGINIA.

By our reckoning, we're at the midpoint. In the past year, we've studied the economic and demographic forces that are reshaping our region, and what that means to ordinary citizens.

In the coming year, we'll present reports on the region's economic options: Are manufacturing jobs a thing of the past? Does the region have a decent shot at attracting high-tech jobs? How can the Roanoke Valley make up for the lack of a four-year state university? Should the region make a major play for tourism? How many of the jobs of the future are in health care? Should the region concentrate on growing its own companies? What kind of environment do we offer entrepreneurs? How important is the region's ``quality of life'' in trying to attract new employers?

Until then, perhaps it's time for a midterm review of sorts, to see what we've learned:

\ CITIZENS ARE WORRIED ABOUT JOBS - AND LOOK FIRST TO LOCAL GOVERNMENT TO FIX THE PROBLEM.

The Roanoke Valley Poll showed citizens have deep-seated concerns about the region's economic future: 70 percent of those surveyed say lack of job opportunities is their biggest gripe with the region.

The poll also showed that citizens look first to local governments to solve the region's economic problems - but they aren't confident those local governments can, or will.

\ JOB LOSSES DON'T JUST HURT THE PERSON WHO LOST THE JOB.

Job losses have a ripple effect through the region's economy: When First Union lays off bank employees, other companies - from car dealers to hair salons - feel an economic pinch, as well.

\ THE ROANOKE VALLEY NEEDS TO VIEW ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT FROM A REGIONAL POINT OF VIEW.

As the global economy makes national boundaries more porous, the world is evolving into ``city-states'' that trade and compete with one another. This makes it more important for communities to band together to think and act in regional terms.

But just how big is Roanoke's economic region? Does it include the New River Valley, for instance?

\ IS THE ROANOKE VALLEY'S ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT EFFORT WELL-COORDINATED?

Despite the growing need for a unified regional outlook, Roanoke Valley governments don't always work together on economic development. Sometimes, they wind up competing with one another - with mixed results.

\ IS VIRGINIA'S SYSTEM OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT ONE REASON THE STATE LAGS BEHIND NORTH CAROLINA IN ECONOMIC GROWTH?

Some business leaders and urban affairs analysts around the country think so. They say Virginia's unique system of independent cities - cities that can't enlarge their boundaries - is an obstacle to regional planning for economic development.

\ THE VALLEY'S POPULATION DRAIN OF YOUNG ADULTS IS ACCELERATING.

Many young adults leave the Roanoke Valley to find jobs elsewhere. That much is common knowledge. But an analysis of Census Bureau statistics showed that the exodus of young adults accelerated during the 1980s. Why?

Probably because the region wasn't creating enough high-wage jobs to keep them here.

\ ROANOKE IS REALLY A RUST BELT CITY.

Geography may place Roanoke in the South, but our economic profile is that of a Rust Belt city. An analysis of 40 years' worth of census data shows that the Roanoke Valley's trend lines run counter to those of most other big cities in Virginia and North Carolina. In 1950, the Roanoke Valley was one of the most affluent metro areas in the region. By 1990, it was one of the least affluent. Why?

Roanoke's traditional industrial base eroded and wasn't replaced, while other Southern cities retooled their low-wage economies and created a new base of high-wage industries.

\ ROANOKE IS GEOGRAPHICALLY ISOLATED FROM HIGH-WAGE JOB GROWTH.

Geographers say the Roanoke Valley is in the wrong place - namely, outside the high-wage job-growth corridor in cities along Interstate 95 and Interstate 85, from Northern Virginia to Richmond to Raleigh-Durham to Charlotte.

Geographers say if the Roanoke Valley wants to siphon off some of those high-wage jobs, it needs two things: First, more companies whose economic future is linked to those fast-growing cities, so as more customers are created there, more jobs will be created here. Second, better and more direct roads to North Carolina, such as the proposed Interstate 73.



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