Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: MONDAY, April 4, 1994 TAG: 9404040066
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: C-1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: Associated Press
DATELINE: RICHMOND LENGTH: Medium
North declared last week he had enough delegates to capture the nomination for the seat held by Democrat Charles Robb.
"If the convention were held today, North would win. But his support is soft," said Robert Denton, a professor of communications at Virginia Tech. "He continues to make aggressive mailings. If the race is over, why is he doing that?"
Part of the problem in determining candidate strength is the way the party chooses its delegates to the June 4 convention in Richmond. Though between 12,000 and 15,000 delegates are expected to attend, there are only 8,782 delegate votes. Under a complex system, the party shares a delegate vote between as many as five delegates.
In addition, none of the delegates are bound to a candidate. They may make a commitment to a candidate, but it is not binding.
"There is no way of knowing if those commitments are valid," said David Johnson, state GOP executive director.
Miller's campaign maintains that North's support among delegates is slipping.
Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist, said most North supporters are so loyal they will not switch allegiance no matter what happens. But he said a small percentage - 10 percent to 20 percent - possibly could be influenced by polls showing Miller beating Robb, and North losing to Robb.
"The polls are providing a drip, drip, drip," Sabato said.
North has been fiercely criticized by some Republican officials, including former President Reagan and U.S. Sen. John Warner.
Warner has called North unfit to serve in the Senate because of his role in the Iran-Contra scandal. North was convicted of lying to Congress, but his convictions were overturned by an appeals court.
Gov. George Allen has remained neutral, although many of his aides favor Miller, budget director in the Reagan administration, the newspaper said.
The fact that North is ahead shows his strength as a candidate, said North supporter Randolph Byrd of Buckingham County.
"He has made lemonade out of every lemon handed him," said Byrd, the 5th District GOP chairman.
As for polls showing North would lose to Robb in a general election, Byrd said, "Ollie hasn't campaigned on TV yet. Among the Republicans he has campaigned to, he is ahead."
But another Republican, whom the newspaper did not identify, said, "Miller has succeeded in planting the seeds of doubt about North. For a man who six months ago was given no chance, he has made it a real contest."
"Miller is gaining in name recognition and gaining in the polls," said Denton, the Virginia Tech professor.
"Momentum is on his side, but is it too late?"
The Democrats will pick their candidate in a June 14 primary. Richmond lawyer Sylvia Clute, state Sen. Virgil Goode of Rocky Mount and Nancy Spannaus, a follower of political extremist Lyndon LaRouche, are campaigning to challenge Robb.
Of the Democrats, only Spannaus has submitted the necessary petitions with 14,865 signatures of registered voters to get on the ballot. Spannaus' petitions are being verified by the party. The deadline for submitting signatures is April 15.
Keywords:
POLITICS
by CNB