
                         Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: SATURDAY, April 9, 1994                   TAG: 9404110166
SECTION: NATL/INTL                    PAGE: A-1   EDITION: METRO 
SOURCE: From the Los Angeles Times and The Washington Post
DATELINE: WASHINGTON                                LENGTH: Medium

EXIT MAY STALL, AID U.S. TRADE

The resignation of Japanese Prime Minister Morihiro Hosokawa is likely to make the roiling trade dispute between Washington and Tokyo even more intractable in the near future, U.S. experts cautioned Friday. But over time, it could be a catalyst for progress.

Friday's resignation caught Washington by surprise. President Clinton expressed concern that the reform process that began with Hosokawa's arrival in office not end with his departure.

The United States wants Tokyo to reduce a trade surplus that has soared to $130 billion, roughly half of it at U.S. expense.

U.S. experts said Hosokawa's resignation, prompted by doubts over old financial dealings, could affect the trade issue in two steps:

The likely shakeup in Japan's government will force leaders to focus on pressing domestic matters and weaken their ability to pressure the powerful Trade Ministry bureaucrats into making concessions. ``The bureaucrats are more powerful now. No senior, heavyweight politician can force a decision at this point,'' said Doug Paal, who was President Bush's adviser on Asia.

In the longer run, the turmoil could lead to approval of a new Japanese government budget. Settling that could clear the decks for resolution of the trade fight. On the other hand, said Paal, if Hosokawa's coalition begins to fracture, trade-talk delays could be extended.

Japan's politicians and pundits pronounced themselves mystified about why the most popular figure in politics had suddenly quit. The 56-year-old descendant of samurai warlords had a manner so mesmerizing that in 1989 he played the heartthrob role in a samurai movie.

For Hosokawa, the past may have looked considerably brighter than the future. He has racked up historic achievements.

For the first time, his government clearly admitted and apologized for Japan's brutal colonization of East Asia in the years before World War II. He decided the emperor should visit Pearl Harbor to apologize to Americans.

He opened Japan's rice market to imports, something no other politician had dared. He opened the construction market to foreign bidders. He put a record number of women - three - in his 20-member Cabinet and named the first female justice to the Supreme Court.

And he forced through a reluctant Parliament his most important legacy, a sweeping series of changes that will redraw the national political map and crack down on Japan's pervasive political corruption.

s such as budgets and regulatory changes - may have looked drab and unappealing.

by CNB