ROANOKE TIMES

                         Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: MONDAY, April 18, 1994                   TAG: 9404180090
SECTION: NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL                    PAGE: A-1   EDITION: METRO 
SOURCE: ALISON SMALE ASSOCIATED PRESS
DATELINE: VIENNA, AUSTRIA                                LENGTH: Medium


OPTIMISM FOR PEACE LOST IN WEEK

Just as the Bosnian war appeared to be winding down, it sparked an international crisis that threatened to spin out of control.

In its end game, the war is inevitably more dangerous. The Bosnian Serbs, backed to some degree by their traditional ally Russia, and the Muslim-led government each seek all they can get.

Tensions peaked over Gorazde, a Muslim enclave in southeastern Bosnia under Serb siege for most of the two-year war.

On April 10, Bosnian Serb forces were closing in on Gorazde. But their leaders were negotiating a Bosnia-wide cease-fire, and international mediators were confident a truce would be signed, saving the 65,000 people in Gorazde.

Then something went badly wrong. Bosnian Serb commander Gen. Ratko Mladic did not halt the offensive. When the United Nations tried to reach Mladic that day to tell him to stop, he was on the front lines.

Hours later, U.S. fighter jets bombed Serb positions. The U.N. commander in Bosnia, Lt. Gen. Sir Michael Rose, called the jets in to protect U.N. observers and British liaison officers in Gorazde. More bombs fell last Monday.

With NATO making the first ground attack in its history, Mladic appeared to have badly underestimated the world's will to come to Gorazde's rescue.

But, in the Balkans, politics is played like poker. Instead of throwing in a still-strong hand, Mladic and his backers simply raised the stakes.

Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic, the region's power broker, set the tone by saying that the NATO bombing showed the United Nations was biased in favor of the Muslim-led government. That was the cue for the isolated Serbs to cut yet more ties with the outside world.

In Serbia, 13 foreign correspondents were stripped of their credentials, accused of waging a "media war" against Serbs. Bosnian Serbs expelled U.N. journalists from their territory.

The Bosnian Serbs also seized or surrounded about 150 U.N. peacekeepers, in effect using them as hostages against further bombing raids.

Rose wanted more air strikes Friday, when a British liaison officer was wounded in Gorazde and needed evacuation.

But the U.N.'s top civilian commander in Bosnia, Yasushi Akashi, refused. Instead, he placed faith in what Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic promised was a Gorazde cease-fire.

The Briton got out, but later died. And, by Saturday, Serb tanks were blasting toward the very center of Gorazde.

More air strikes were ordered. But they were called off when Mladic's troops shot down a British Sea Harrier on Saturday as it approached for the first bombing run.

Akashi came as close as the United Nations has come to pulling out entirely, demanding the Serbs release U.N. personnel and hold fire before he would talk to them again Sunday.

The Serbs agreed to hold fire, pull back nearly two miles from the town center, and allow 350 U.N. peacekeepers into the enclave. Yet reports from Gorazde itself said Serbs continued their drive into the town.

"Today must be a starting point for the reverse movement away from war," Russian Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev said Sunday, after holding talks with Milosevic the day before in Belgrade.

The Bosnian Serbs, their Muslim and Croat foes and the international community have wanted to end the war for more than a year. But they could never agree on terms - and battles raged on.

If a settlement is reached over Gorazde, the way may be clear for a final peace in Bosnia. International mediators could seize the momentum and press for the overall truce they had thought was close.

After that, they must persuade the Bosnian government to swallow a settlement under which the Serbs will almost certainly give up some of the 72 percent of Bosnia they now hold - but only in exchange for their own state and close links with Serbia proper, for which they have shed blood for two years.



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