
                         Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: THURSDAY, April 21, 1994                   TAG: 9404210213
SECTION: NATIONAL/INT                    PAGE: A-1   EDITION: METRO 
SOURCE: Associated Press
DATELINE: WASHINGTON                                LENGTH: Medium

CENSUS BUREAU PREDICTS POPULATION SHIFTS BY 2020

A quarter-century down the road, America will be older and more varied, less white, less female and less Northern, if the population experts have 2020 foresight.

Among the states, Texas and Florida are expected to climb into second and third place in population behind California by the year 2020, the Census Bureau reports.

Both of those states should surpass New York - and Texas may already have done so - the bureau says in new population projections.

Continued strong growth in the South and West is expected to be a major trend of the coming years, Census population expert Paul Campbell said Wednesday.

The South already is the country's most populous region, and by 2010, the West will surpass the Midwest for second place, he said.

The bureau's best estimate for 2020 is a nation of 325.9 million people, up from 249.4 million counted in 1990.

But it won't look like today's America, with people continuing to move away from the Northeast and Midwest, with minorities growing rapidly and the sex and age ratios shifting slightly.

Women, for example, are expected to total 166 million in 2020, 50.9 percent of the population. That's slightly below the 51.2 percent they now constitute.

Immigration, which tends to be largely male, is probably the major factor in this expected shift, Campbell said.

Whites still will make up by far the largest number of Americans, though not as big a percentage as they do now.

The white population will shrink from 83.3 percent to 78.2 percent, though it will grow in total people to 254.8 million.

Immigration and rapid population growth are expected to make Hispanics the nation's largest minority by 2020, totaling 51.2 million, or 15.7 percent of the population. That's up from 9.7 percent in 1993.

Blacks will be the second largest minority at 45.4 million people, 13.9 percent. That's an increase from the current 12.5 percent.

Asians and Pacific Islanders, too, will see significant growth, rising to 22.6 million, or 6.9 percent, from their current 3.4 percent.

American Indians will increase their share of the population from 0.8 percent to 0.9 percent, rising to 3.1 million in 2020.

by CNB