Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: MONDAY, April 25, 1994                   TAG: 9404250099
SECTION: NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL                    PAGE: A-3   EDITION: METRO 
SOURCE: The Washington Post
DATELINE: WASHINGTON                                LENGTH: Medium

WELFARE REFORM EXPERIMENT WORKS - ON A SMALL SCALE

The study also said, however, that the experiment could fail if tried on a much larger scale unless the government substantially upgrades program personnel and devotes more resources to tailoring job training to individual needs.

The report by the National Commission for Employment Policy, to be released today, stressed that no one program or strategy would be enough to end welfare dependency.

What's more, the government must be prepared to offer a wide range of support services to those trying to get off the welfare rolls, including child care and transportation, it said.

"There is no silver bullet to end welfare dependency," said Anthony Carnevale, chairman of the commission, which advises the administration and Congress on employment policy. "The good news is that established government-sponsored employment and training programs can move welfare recipients into the workplace and beyond poverty under a `two years and out' plan."

A Clinton administration task force has recommended changes in the welfare system, including making public assistance a two-year transitional benefit that would be followed by mandatory work.

The task force has prepared estimates suggesting that the program's costs would gradually increase from $1 billion in 1996 to $6 billion in 1999, or a five-year total of nearly $15 billion.

According to some estimates, a mandatory work program could cost up to $6,000 per person, about half for education and job training and half for day care, transportation and other support services.

In an attempt to replicate one group likely to be affected by the "two years and out" policy, the commission study focused on 6,467 women from 11 states, 22 years and older, who had not worked for at least a year before enrolling in employment and training services provided under the federal Job Training and Partnership Act.

About three-quarters of the AFDC recipients who took part in the intensive training were successfully placed in jobs, according to the study, and those who took part in the program were more likely to hold on to their jobs in the coming year or two than others who found work on their own.

The study also found that while AFDC recipients were able to pull themselves out of poverty by enrolling in the jobs program, in many cases it took them two or more years to do so. For example, 16 percent of those who were placed in jobs through the program had incomes that exceeded the poverty level one year after the program and 22 percent made it above the poverty level in the second year.

Of those women who sought work without the program, 2 percent had incomes that exceeded the poverty level in the first year and 8 percent exceeded the poverty level in the second year. The poverty level was considered $9,885 per year for a family of three.