
                         Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: SUNDAY, May 22, 1994                   TAG: 9405220011
SECTION: NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL                    PAGE: D-7   EDITION: METRO 
SOURCE: Washington Post
DATELINE: WASHINGTON                                LENGTH: Medium

GOP MAY OUTRUN DEMOCRATS FOR SEATS IN HOUSE

Republican challenges to Democratic House incumbents are continuing to surge this year, and the GOP appears to be on the verge of running more candidates than the Democratic Party for the first time in recent memory, according to Federal Election Commission reports.

Rep. Bill Paxon, N.Y., chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, said the trends point toward "a historic reversal from past election cycles, and underscores both the success we are having and the failure of the Democrats coming up with candidates."

In 1990 and 1988, when the GOP allowed many more Democrats to win re-election without opposition, "you could not expect us to be serious about winning a majority," Paxon contended. Now, he said, "the shoe is on the other foot. If they cede this many seats, it's like a football team coming on the field with six players, and the other team coming out full strength."

David Dixon, political director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, countered: "The reason this [Democratic] party has been successful has been good targeting of our resources. It is not a priority to file fringe candidates just to get on the ballot."

In Florida, where the Democratic candidates are not opposing nine of 13 House Republicans, Dixon said "it costs $10,000 just to get on the ballot. It's quality, not quantity, here. And the races we feel we have a shot at winning, we have excellent candidates, including three former Republicans who have now switched to Democrat."

Benjamin Sheffner, associate editor of the Cook Political Report, said that, based on interviews with candidates and local party officials, there remains considerable voter anger at Congress that helps give momentum to candidates who challenge incumbents. The Cook report has identified 72 congressional districts held by Democrats as competitive, while placing only 32 GOP-held seats in this category.

The FEC figures on the number of candidates are preliminary because filing deadlines have not passed in all states. Also, the FEC material does not separate serious candidates from the marginal. But the trends remain striking:

From 1988 to 1994, the total number of Democratic House candidates running as incumbents, challengers and for open seats has grown modestly, from 432 to 485. The number of GOP candidates has grown far more rapidly, from 346 to 534, and, in 1994, the total of Republican candidates was for the first time larger than the number of Democrats.

In the crucial category of candidates challenging incumbents, the number of Republicans has more than doubled from 1988 to 1992, going from 117 to 263. In contrast, the number of Democratic challengers has stagnated, dropping slightly from 140 in 1988 to 136 this year.

The early fund-raising data show that Republican candidates challenging Democratic incumbents are significantly improving their financial ability to run competitive campaigns, reaching a level where they are on a par with Democratic challengers. This year, on average, GOP challengers have raised $50,000 each, virtually the same as Democratic challengers, who have raised an average of $49,000.

Incumbents on both sides of the aisle continue to raise far more than their challengers. The average Democratic incumbent has raised $251,000 and the average Republican has raised $236,000.

Keywords:
POLITICS

by CNB