Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: THURSDAY, May 26, 1994 TAG: 9406010050
SECTION: EDITORIAL PAGE: A-17 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: Ray L. Garland
DATELINE: LENGTH: Long
The conventional wisdom is that Sen. Charles Robb will defeat state Sen. Virgil Goode and Sylvia Clute to win the Democratic primary June 14, and this will surely bring former Gov. Douglas Wilder into the race as an independent. It is held with less certainty that Oliver North's victory at the GOP convention will induce J. Marshall Coleman, the former state attorney general and twice-failed Republican candidate for governor, also to enter the race as an independent.
Wilder is openly soliciting signatures on petitions to place his name on the ballot and isn't expected to have the slightest difficulty rounding up many more than the 14,865 required. A Northern Virginia businessman apparently is spending his own money qualifying Coleman, and has said his goal is easily within reach. His prospective candidate, meanwhile, is backing Miller and keeping a zipped lip on what he'll do if North wins the nomination.
If Miller is nominated, Coleman almost certainly would not run. But he has to know that a Robb-North-Wilder race comes very close to being "last call" for that burning ambition he has nursed for more than 30 years.
What Wilder would do if Robb lost the Democratic primary isn't entirely clear. From their years together in the Virginia Senate, he has maintained very friendly relations with Goode, who twice nominated him for statewide office. But he has to file before the primary results are announced; and once filed, he must almost certainly see it through.
The near-certain presence of Wilder in the race, dividing the Democratic vote, is the best argument North partisans have for going through with his nomination despite the prophets of doom. Nor are they particularly dismayed by a possible Coleman candidacy. They are certainly entitled to argue that the addition of Coleman will further splinter the liberal-moderate vote, leaving North in sole possession of the hard-right base that surely won't fall much below a third of the total. But they shouldn't overlook the fact that a three- or four-way race in which an overwhelming majority agree only on the need to beat North will have its own peculiar dynamic that may just as easily work against him.
While polls at this point are hardly more than a fleeting guide, the most recent sampling offered small comfort to either North or Wilder. The Commonwealth Poll, released April 28, did not attempt to match up potential opponents, but sought to measure the public's degree of acceptance or outright rejection of all major players except Coleman. It found that half the people wouldn't consider voting for North or Wilder, compared to only 34 percent who couldn't bear the thought of doing the same for Robb.
When asked whom they would definitely or possibly vote for, a far different picture emerged. Robb was the definite or possible choice of 53 percent compared to 37 percent for North and 38 percent for Wilder. The key unknown in this is what Coleman's presence would do to North and how many Robb-Wilder voters would swap off, depending on which man was perceived as having the best chance to win.
The other candidates suffered from the fact that so many of those polled said they didn't know enough about them to hold an opinion. While 52 percent said they couldn't express an opinion on Miller, it was good news that 32 percent said they would definitely or possibly support him.
The last Mason-Dixon poll, released April 24, did match up the best-known candidates and found that Miller had moved ahead of Robb among voters willing to express a preference while North lagged 16 points behind, gaining no ground from previous samplings. Considering that Miller is just beginning to register on the average voter's radar screen, his lead over Robb was a somewhat remarkable achievement that seemed to say he ought to be favored going into the general election.
Let me place upon the record that I am a Miller delegate to the GOP convention, having broken a vow to attend partisan conclaves only in the role of observer, made when I took up the pundit's pen almost 10 years ago.
So, what follows is a clearly biased testimonial in favor of Miller. The Republican Party is a house whose foundation is weakened by examples of cowardice and unrealism typical of political parties in all times and places. Some Republican candidates and elected officials know the right course but fear to take it forthrightly. Others play upon the emotions of certain groups, such as the anti-abortionists, knowing full well the political will doesn't exist in the country to bring about the goals to which they pay such fervent lip service.
While there are few national Democrats who openly dissent from their party's clear agenda of expanding the reach of government, which is what makes the gallant Virgil Goode so personally appealing, the GOP suffers from a shortage of leaders willing to stand on true conservative principles and talk sense to the American people.
Jim Miller is no political titan enjoying the gift of tongues. But he is a man of great practical experience in the real business of government who can be depended upon in most instances to vote the way a majority of Virginians would have him vote were they in possession of the known facts. He would enter the Senate as a respected voice for Virginia and be effective from day one in representing our interests.
While I would never say Miller is certain to win and North bound to lose, it is entirely proper to say Miller starts with the best chance and this is a seat on which no chances should be taken. Nor should those seven GOP challengers for House seats now held by Democrats be forgotten. Conservatives united behind Miller can certainly do their prospects no harm. Those who persist with North in the face of what is known or reasonably feared assume a very heavy burden of responsibility.
Ray L. Garland is a Roanoke Times & World-News columnist.
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