Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: THURSDAY, June 16, 1994 TAG: 9406170223
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: A-1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: By Warren Fiske STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: RICHMOND LENGTH: Long
Cautious, issue-oriented candidates and a few warm-and-fuzzy television commercials - at least for the first half of the summer, political analysts say.
But as Election Day draws nearer, cover your eyes and expect the candidates to forget about their promises not to engage in personal attacks, they warn.
"This will be an extraordinarily intricate race for the candidates and voters," said Robert Holsworth, a political scientist at Virginia Commonwealth University. "It will be like a complex video game where one person can vanquish an opponent and then turn around to find two other opponents firing in on him."
"By the time we're through, we'll have had our fill of negative politics," said Thomas R. Morris, a political scientist who is president of Emory & Henry College. "The unfortunate thing is that what's now a four-way race could end up as a five-way race. The fifth option will be not voting."
Usually, political races boil down to a referendum on the incumbent office holder, which would be Democrat Charles S. Robb. But this year, most analysts agree, the race centers on a challenger - Republican Oliver North, who gained national notoriety during the Iran-Contra scandal of the Reagan administration.
A recent poll found that 53 percent of Virginia voters have a negative view of North. During a normal year, that might spell doom for a candidate. But in a four-way race, North could conceivably win with as little as 26 percent of the vote.
Many observers predict that Virginia will actually see two races wrapped in one. The preliminary bout, they say, will occur between North's three opponents - Robb; former Democratic Gov. Douglas Wilder, who is expected to run as an independent; and former Republican Attorney General Marshall Coleman, who is slated to announce his independent candidacy today.
At issue will be which of the three can emerge as the strongest opponent to North. Holsworth said he expects a gravitation of moderate voters torward that candidate in the closing weeks of the campaign. "The polls taken during the final week of the election will be the most important polls ever conducted in Virginia," he said.
"Voters, by the end of the campaign, may not be voting for their first choice, but for the person that might be in the best position to stop the candidate they like the least," he added.
Like North, Robb and Wilder also receive high negative ratings from voters. The first step for all three is to improve their popularity, which may explain why each is promising to run an issue-oriented campaign and refrain from personal attacks.
"Negative campaigning has its risks," Morris said. "No one wants to be seen as the first one who went on the attack."
North, 50, began his image-improvement campaign Tuesday by airing a television commericial in which his wife, Betsy, extols his virtues as a family man and patriot. North is hoping to raise a record $20 million for his campaign. He appears to have a strong base with conservative and evangelical Republicans and may run strongest in rural portions of the state.
He is hoping to expand his base by exciting blue-collar and labor votes that traditionally belong to Democrats.
Robb, 54, is offering himself as a battle-proven incumbent who has made tough decisions, such as voting for tax increases in Congress. He is refusing to discuss reports of womanizing that have dogged him in recent years. Robb has strong support in Northern Virginia, a vast organization of Democratic organizers and a campaign treasury that will allow him to compete with North on the airwaves.
Robb is the only candidate who staunchly supports President Clinton, whose job performance is hailed by only 37 percent of Virginia voters. His problem is that many of the Clinton supporters are black and expected to support Wilder.
Wilder, 63, is expected to win at least 70 percent of the traditionally Democratic black vote, according to polls. He is hoping to woo moderate voters with his record as a fiscal conservative. During his term as governor from 1990-94, Virginia was one of two states that did not raise tax rates.
Wilder's popularity has been hurt in recent years by his public feuding with Robb. It's an open question whether Wilder can continue to press his claim that Robb is "unfit to hold office" without dampening his election chances. Also unknown is whether the $2 million Wilder hopes to raise for the campaign will be enough to compete with North and Robb.
Coleman, 52, is gearing his campaign at moderate, suburban Republicans who are dissatisfied with the party's backing of North. Coleman is running with strong backing from the state's senior Senator, Republican John Warner. It's unknown whether Warner's vast popularity - and his fundraising network - can be transferred to Coleman.
Coleman, the GOP's nominee for governor in 1981 and 1989, is already facing charges of being a politicial opportunist. In the early 1980s he supported abortion rights. In 1989, he ran on a strong anti-abortion platform. This year, he's pro-choice again. For the time being, however, he is benefitting from his five-year absence from politics. Most voters recognize his name and only 12 percent say they don't like him.
Keywords:
POLITICS
by CNB