Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: MONDAY, July 4, 1994 TAG: 9407040034
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: C1 EDITION: HOLIDAY
SOURCE: DWAYNE YANCEY STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: LENGTH: Long
\ OK, let's get this straight: Charles Robb and Douglas Wilder probably hate each other's guts, but the Democratic senator has to say good things about his independent challenger because he can't afford to offend Wilder's supporters?
Yet Republican Senate nominee Oliver North is free to take a swing at the independent GOP candidate, Marshall Coleman, because he's got to do something to keep disgruntled Republican voters from drifting into other camps?
You don't need a scorecard to keep track of the players; these are four of the best-known politicians in Virginia. But you might need a scouting report to know just how each one thinks he's going to win.
Here goes:
CHARLES ROBB
Strengths: He's the incumbent, which may still count for something. If nothing else, it gives him an excuse to stay above the fray and act "senatorial." Should have the energetic support of a number of liberal interest groups, from teachers to labor unions to gays.
Weaknesses: Aside from the sex-and-drugs-and-audiotape scandal? He's a plodding speaker who hasn't faced a tough race in the 13 years since he was elected governor. His campaign organization is based on the same all-top, no-bottom framework that carried Mary Sue Terry to disaster last year.
Question marks: How do voters feel about Robb's admission of conduct "not appropriate for a married man?" Are there more revelations to come? And how will Robb's enthusiastic embrace of President Clinton play in Virginia, even in a four-way race? Has Robb gone too far to the left?
How Robb wins: Robb must rise above the crowd by appearing to be "senatorial," focusing on policy questions. "He needs to act like the Senator and not let North drag him back into the mud of the social issues," says Virginia Commonwealth University political analyst Avon Drake.
"But just being on the issues is not going to be enough," says Virginia Tech's Bob Denton. "He's got to rebuild his statesmanship."
Robb also must cast himself as the best, if not only, candidate to beat North.
"His strategy is, `If you don't vote for me, North wins,' " says Harry Wilson of Roanoke College. "That may be an effective strategy."
Robb also can't afford to surrender too many black voters to Wilder.
"He has to build a credible and committed corps of black political surrogates who will work for him knowing they'll be going up against the Wilder people," Drake says. "Robb can't blast Wilder; he has to let his black surrogates do that. He has to have him remind voters what Robb's legacy is."
How Robb loses: "He's inclined to stick to issues, but the problem is, his issues have become more liberal of late," Wilson says. If North succeeds in painting Robb as a Clinton clone, it may not matter how much Robb talks about what a great governor he was a decade ago.
\ OLIVER NORTH
Strengths: He's got the most impassioned base of any of the four candidates - and the biggest fund-raising machine. North also delivers the clearest, and most potent, message. To top it off, he has a campaign organization whose sophistication Robb has likened to that of a presidential campaign.
Weaknesses: Aside from that Iran-Contra business and the felony convictions (later overturned)? North's polarizing style may be too strong for genteel Virginians, and his hard-right message may be too hard.
Question marks: Can North soften his image enough to woo the moderate swing voters in the suburbs? How much will the independent candidates split the vote and how will they split it? Put another way, what's the smallest percentage it will take to win this four-way race? The smaller, the better for North.
How North wins: North is counting on his fund-raising machine to fuel the broadcast equivalent of "carpet-bombing," a campaign-long TV blitz that enables him to take his message "straight to the voters." But some analysts say that's not enough.
"He'll have to stop being so strident," Drake says. "Not change his basic political outline, but not have a posture that intimidates people just because they don't agree with him."
With that in mind, North has already started trying to come across as a likeable, ordinary guy. Don't think it was an accident that North shucked his suit coat for the "Larry King Live" debate.
And then there's the commercial in which his wife talks about what a great husband he is. After the nice guy image has sunk in, look for North to start demonizing Robb, pushing the hottest of the hot buttons - on social issues such as gays in the military.
North needs Wilder in the race to split the Democratic vote, but has to worry about Coleman fracturing his own.
"He needs to undermine Coleman's credibility and hurt his fund-raising," says Mark Rozell of Mary Washington College.
How North loses: The voters who normally lean Republican but can't stomach North's hard-right politics could drift anywhere - to Coleman, to Robb, even to Wilder. If the "anybody but North" vote coalesces behind the front-runner, regardless of who that is, North could be in trouble.
"I don't think he can expand his base," Wilson says. "I don't think he can reinvent himself for people who don't like him any more than his opponents will be able to reinvent North to people who like him."
\ MARSHALL COLEMAN
Strengths: In contrast to the polarizing North and the tainted Robb, the smooth Coleman may be the perfect suburban candidate - moderate enough to be presentable, conservative enough to be safe on the issues. Also, Coleman is John Warner's surrogate this time around, and Warner is the most popular politician in the state right now.
Weaknesses: Aside from having lost three statewide races since 1981 and gaining a reputation for reinventing himself each time to suit the political climate? Coleman's base of uneasy suburbanites is the squishiest of all the the candidates; it could be a mirage of early polling. If Coleman doesn't start to make moves soon, his expected suburban base could evaporate in the summer heat.
Question marks: Can he raise money and put together a campaign organization as an independent, especially when Republicans are putting such a high price on party loyalty? How much will Coleman's flip-flop-flip on abortion revive the question of just what Coleman really stands for? Will the Perotistas really come to his aid?
How Coleman wins: He consolidates the disgruntled Republicans in the suburbs, especially in populous Northern Virginia, and rejuvenates his old base of moderate "mountain-valley" Republicans to become the conservative alternative to both North and Robb.
As University of Virginia political analyst Larry Sabato puts it, "The problem in previous elections was that Marshall Coleman was the message."
But this time, he can be the messenger - effectively transforming himself into a surrogate for Warner.
"If by Election Day, voters look at Marshall Coleman and see John Warner, he's got a shot," Sabato says.
"It appears he has the potentially broadest support of the four," Rozell says. "But the depth of his support is not very great. He has to present himself as the respectable, untainted moderate-conservative alternative."
Coleman, against a field of celebrities, may also be able to present himself as "a real human being," Drake suggests.
How Coleman loses: The money and organization never materialize, and moderate-conservative voters decide the best way to stop North is by voting for Robb. Or, worse yet from Coleman's point of view, they eventually warm up to North.
\ DOUGLAS WILDER
Strengths: In black voters, Wilder has a base as rock-solid as North's, though it may not be as big. Wilder also has the best flair for the dramatic in a race that will be political theater; he won't have trouble getting noticed.
Weaknesses: Aside from being Virginia's most unpopular governor in modern times? Wilder has disdained the nitty-gritty of organizational politics in previous campaigns; in those years, the Democratic Party took up the slack. But as an independent, Wilder must do everything on his own.
Question marks: Can Wilder raise enough money to compete? Can he put together an organization that will identify his potential supporters and help him craft a message to woo them? Can he still attract white voters? How much will Robb contest Wilder for his base in the black community? Will longtime strategist and former state Democratic chairman Paul Goldman, who advised Virgil Goode during the primary, abandon his party allegiance to work for Wilder again?
How Wilder wins: First, Wilder must solidify his base.
"He's going to have to rely on playing the racial card," Drake says. "He has to come forward with a strongly dynamic black agenda. Other times he hasn't had an agenda that was specific to blacks and blacks had to understand that."
This time, "Robb's people will ask, `What has Wilder done for you?' Most blacks know Wilder hasn't done a lot."
After that, Drake says, "Wilder has to find a way to have a broader conversation with the white majority."
Look for Wilder to zigzag across the political spectrum, touting his record of fiscal conservatism as governor and pushing Robb even farther to the left.
"If he comes forward as a fiscal conservative, he's got a legitimate case to make," Wilson says.
Wilder, who relishes the role of a "son of Virginia" defending the honor of his native state, also will try to present himself as the only unsullied candidate in the race.
How Wilder loses: White voters say they've had enough of Wilder.
"His problem is more of a personality problem," Wilson says. "He needs to focus on his administration. The problem is, it's known as the Wilder administration and that's a negative."
Or, as Denton puts it, "He's overestimating his own popularity."
"I think he's got the toughest campaign ahead of him," Rozell says. "Wilder needs somehow to break into Robb's traditional Democratic Party base if he wants to have a chance."
Rozell doesn't think Wilder's broken-field running through the political spectrum will work. "There's no way you can run to the left and the moderate center at the same time. If he runs to the right, does he risk alienating his African-American supporters?"
Keywords:
POLITICS
by CNB