Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: TUESDAY, July 12, 1994                   TAG: 9408030013
SECTION: NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL                    PAGE: A1   EDITION: METRO 
SOURCE: PAMELA CONSTABLE BOSTON GLOBE
DATELINE: WASHINGTON                                 LENGTH: Medium

DOES HAITI THINK U.S. BLUFFING?

Yet, because U.S. policy has zigzagged and its saber-rattling has been mixed with what some see as a reluctance to take action, Haiti's military leaders seem convinced they can call President Clinton's bluff - even as U.S. warships patrol nearby and U.S. troops practice storming beaches.

``I know it sounds hard to believe, but the army still thinks Clinton is going to blink first,'' one Haitian analyst said Friday.

In its latest act of defiance, Haiti's government on Monday ordered all United Nations human-rights observers to leave the country. The Clinton administration condemned the move.

A decree signed by military-installed provisional President Emile Jonaissant gave the 40 United Nations and 64 Organization of American States observers 48 hours to leave Haiti, accusing them of threatening public order and state security, according to Eric Falt, the U.N. spokesman in Haiti.

The Security Council is to meet today. No decision had been made on whether to withdraw.

Sunday, Clinton and his staff insisted that the Haitian policy was solid. Clinton said leaders of the Group of Seven industrialized nations backed his policies.

Although a military strike against Haiti's leaders might be swift, analysts say officials have not sufficiently thought through its consequences on the ground. Critics from left to right have assailed the administration's policy as naive and apt to lead to disaster.

Critics say U.S. officials appear to have fewer options in Haiti with each passing day, and that the suffering there - caused partly by a U.S.-led embargo and partly by the new, open-arms refugee policy - must not continue.

U.S. policy-makers are deeply divided on the course to follow. Regional specialists feel overshadowed by political advisers in the White House; Clinton is torn between the demands for action by liberal groups and the urge for caution by the Pentagon and Congress.

Officials appear to have underestimated badly some crucial factors: the refusal of Haiti's military leaders to take U.S. threats seriously, and the desperation of Haiti's masses, who continue to flee by sea.

Plans for attacking Haiti, evacuating Americans and launching a multinational follow-up mission are belatedly being prepared.

Cox News Service and The Associated Press supplied information for this story.