Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: SATURDAY, July 23, 1994 TAG: 9407250053
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: C-4 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: By DWAYNE YANCEY STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: LENGTH: Medium
Put another way: With four candidates in the U.S. Senate race, if voters see their favorite candidate lagging behind, will they be inclined to abandon him and vote for their second or even third choice, if that seems the best way to keep the fourth guy from getting elected?
If so, which candidate will be helped or hurt most?
The poll's conclusions:
Yes, Virginians do appear ready to vote "strategically" to keep certain candidates out of office, rather than stick with their favorites to the bitter end.
If that's right, the likely beneficiary is Democratic incumbent Sen. Charles Robb, the poll concludes. That's because many supporters of independents Douglas Wilder and Marshall Coleman list Robb as their second choice - and their main goal is to stop Republican nominee Oliver North.
"If Robb and North were tied near election day, and well ahead of Wilder and Coleman, the survey suggests that `negative strategic voting' would provide approximately a six-point boost to Robb," Keeter says.
Somewhat surprisingly, though, the candidate voters really want to keep out of office is not North, but Wilder - 54 percent said the former Democratic governor is unacceptable. North was unacceptable to 45 percent, while 37 percent said Robb was unacceptable and 36 percent thought that about Coleman.
The candidate with the most potential - so far unrealized - is Coleman. The former Republican attorney general came in dead last in the poll's head-to-head-to-head-to-head matchup, with just 11 percent. (Robb and North were tied in the lead at 29 percent, with Wilder at 16 percent.)
But 22 percent of the voters listed Coleman as their second choice, making him the most popular second choice. (Robb was the No. 2 second choice, with 18 percent.)
Coleman's challenge, obviously, is to convince voters that he's got a serious chance to win. The catch is, the biggest chunk of those "Coleman is my second choice" voters appear to be North supporters first, which means Coleman has to find a way to discredit North so much that North's backers give up hope that he can win.
Given the fervor with which many North supporters back the Republican nominee, that could be a tough sell.
Laying down the gavel
A political institution in Western Virginia has called it quits.
Al Thomason, who has served as Roanoke County's Republican Party chairman for 12 years, has stepped down - or maybe up. He has set aside his county gavel to become vice chairman of the 6th Congressional District GOP.
Thomason's stint at the helm of the largest Republican committee west of Richmond (interrupted only by an eight-month absence in the late 1980s, when he went on an extended trip to Australia and future state Sen. Brandon Bell took his place) may be something of a record - at least as far as bigger localities are concerned.
In some small, rural localities in Virginia, there are sometimes "chairmen for life," says David Johnson, a spokesman for the state Republican Party. "But as far as localities this size, no one even comes close to him."
During Thomason's tenure, Republicans have made great strides in Roanoke County.
"When I came on, it was five Democrats on the Board of Supervisors," Thomason says. "Now it's 3-to-2 in favor of Republicans. We've got two Republican state senators now; we had none. We've got a congressman; we had none. I'd like to think I had a little role in his election."
Thomason, the retired sales manager for a chemical company, has been a force beyond the county's borders, as well. "I keep getting a lot of calls" from Republicans in neighboring localities seeking advice, Thomason says.
He's hoping his phone won't ring as much now. ``When some turkey comes along and says, `I'm going to run,' the chairman has got to be nice to him,'' Thomason says. Now he can tell potential Republican office-seekers what he really thinks.
Keywords:
POLITICS
by CNB